KHARTOUM, July 13 (Reuters) - International Criminal Court judges have issued an arrest warrant for Sudan's president Omar Hassan al-Bashir to face charges of committing genocide during the country's seven-year Darfur conflict.
The Hague-based court has already issued an arrest warrant for Bashir to face seven counts of crimes against humanity and war crimes relating to the conflict.
Following are some questions and answers about Monday’s ruling.
WHAT IS THE IMMEDIATE IMPACT?
The new charges leave a further stain on Bashir’s international reputation.
The official use of the word genocide — with all its echoes of the twentieth century’s worst atrocities — has an important emotional as well as legal impact.
After last year’s war crimes charges, Bashir managed an appearance of business-as-usual. He has continued to make official visits — albeit only to countries not signed up to the court — and present himself as the victim of a Western plot.
That populist appeal will still find an audience in parts of Africa and the Middle East. But it will now be harder for foreign dignitaries to stand next to him at official photo opportunities without a risk to their own reputations.
It remains to be seen whether that translates into any measurable drop in foreign investment, particularly from Western companies who have kept a stake in Sudan despite U.S. trade sanctions.
HOW WILL IT AFFECT DARFUR?
The announcement will embolden the region’s two main rebel groups who are already boycotting troubled peace talks, seven years into the conflict.
Last week there were signs one of them — the Sudan Liberation Army — might be edging closer to the negotiating table when its leader Abdel Wahed Mohamed al-Nur said he was consulting with Qatari officials hosting the talks.
Nur was not available to comment. But the other significant insurgents — the Justice and Equality movement (JEM) — all but ruled out a return to discussions after the ruling.
Smaller rebel groups who are talking to Khartoum may feel they can make bigger demands now than their enemy is on the back foot. None of the scenarios offer much hope for an imminent end to the suffering to the hundreds of thousands of Darfuris trapped in camps.
Powerful lobby groups in the United States will step up their calls for the Obama administration to take a less conciliatory approach with Bashir. It will become much harder for Washington to hold out carrots like the removal of Sudan from its list of state sponsors of terrorism while Bashir remains in power.
A fully isolated Bashir might be less willing to tolerate the significant international presence in Darfur, particularly among aid groups and the joint U.N./African Union peacekeepers.
A number of aid agencies were expelled after Bashir accused them of passing evidence to the ICC after last year’s war crimes indictments. Some Darfur-based aid groups reported an increase in hostility against them which coincided with the start of a wave of kidnappings of humanitarian workers. Three aid staff remain in captivity today. The United Nations and aid groups will be on the look out for any further moves against their staff.
OTHER POLITICAL REPERCUSSIONS?
The ICC’s ruling comes at a highly sensitive time, even by Sudanese standards.
Africa’s largest country is less than six months away from a referendum on whether its oil-producing south should split away as an independent state — a plebiscite promised in a 2005 peace deal that ended decades of north-south civil war.
Bashir and his National Congress Party in recent weeks stepped up a campaign to persuade southerners to vote for north and south Sudan to stay united.
It was always going to be a tough sell given the deep distrust and cultural divides between the two halves of the country. But the north will have to come up with some very good arguments to persuade the south to stay yoked to a sanctions-hit country led by a man wanted for genocide.
Analysts have warned there is a risk of a return to war if Bashir chooses to disrupt the referendum or resist its expected ‘yes’ vote for independence in a bid to keep control of the region’s oil.
WHAT NEXT FOR BASHIR?
Bashir could use his dominance of the army and security services to cling on to power, taking Sudan further down the road of international isolation. The president could also retreat into an orchestrated retirement, while his supporters retain power.
Activists have suggested Bashir could be deposed and handed over to The Hague by plotters keen to bring Sudan back to the international fold. Some members of his inner circle would be held back by the thought that they too could be implicated by the ICC — many of their names appear in the prosecutor’s documents.
