BRISBANE, Australia, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Australia's Prime Minister Julia Gillard, fighting to win a knife-edged election, promised on Monday to create more jobs, cut company tax and improve education and health via a national broadband network.
Labor’s once stellar poll lead has evaporated over eight months, prompting the party to dump its former leader Kevin Rudd in favour of Gillard to restore its political fortunes.
But conservative opposition leader Tony Abbott, a former trainee Catholic priest who runs marathons, has brought his party within reach of victory, with just a week of campaigning left.
Voting is compulsory for 14 million Australians.
Here are some possible outcomes for the election.
GILLARD WINS A SECOND TERM FOR LABOR
Probability: Most likely.
While the polls are close, most analysts still believe Gillard has the best chance of victory on August 21. The economy is going strongly, and Gillard is still well ahead in surveys as preferred prime minister. The five-week campaign has been short on big-picture policies and has failed to engage many voters. That should work in favour of an incumbent government, with few signs the opposition is building momentum to be elected.
Gillard’s Labor also has a reputation for running tactical campaigns, where the party targets the seats it needs to win or hold government.
History is on Gillard’s side. No Australian government has lost office after just one term since 1931, when the Labor government of the time was deeply divided amid the Great Depression. ABBOTT WINS
Probability: Possible.
Abbott took leadership of the opposition in December 2009, ending deep divisions within the conservative side of politics. He has proven a better campaigner than his opponents expected, and has been highly popular on the hustings. His campaign has focused on government debt and mismanagement. But polls after four weeks show disgruntled Labor voters are still wary of backing Abbott, with government votes leaking to minority Greens.
Abbott has made strong gains in northern Queensland state, where the mining tax and unease about the treatment of Rudd have hurt Labor’s campaign.
He is also on track for gains in western Sydney, a district with several marginal seats focused mainly on economic and immigration concerns, and the key mining state of Western Australia. But Gillard could upset Abbott’s election by holding on to marginal seats.
HUNG PARLIAMENT, INDEPENDENTS HOLD THE KEY
Probability: Unlikely.
The polls are pointing to a super-close election result, which raises a chance that three independent MPs could decide which party forms the next government. Australia last elected a hung parliament in 1940.
Close election results, however, do not always lead to minority governments. In 1998, then prime minister John Howard won only 49 percent of the vote, yet still controlled a clear majority. In 1990, then Labor prime minister Bob Hawke won 49.9 percent, but still had an eight-seat majority.
The three independents likely to be returned on August 21 all have former links to the conservative National Party, but all have said they are open to work with either side of politics.
