Democrats appear likely to narrowly hold their U.S. Senate majority in November's congressional elections, although Republicans could make big gains, according to poll averages compiled by the website Real Clear Politics.
Republicans must sweep nearly all of the competitive races to pick up the 10 seats needed for a majority in the Senate, where Democrats now hold a 59-41 edge.
The polls show Republicans leading in enough races to give them a gain of seven seats. That would leave Democrats with a narrow 52-48 edge.
In the House of Representatives, the Real Clear Politics averages show an even battle, with Democrats leading in 202 races and Republicans ahead in 201. Thirty-two contests are considered toss-ups in the fight for a 218-seat majority.
Democrats currently have 255 seats in the House, with Republicans holding 178. There are two vacancies.
In the generic congressional ballot, the latest Reuters/Ipsos national poll showed registered voters preferred the Republican candidate over the Democrat in their House district by 46 percent to 44 percent.
Here is a look at the Real Clear Politics poll averages in the most competitive Senate races, with the party currently holding the seat in parentheses.
* California (Democrat) – Democrat Barbara Boxer leads Republican Carly Fiorina by 4.4 percentage points.
* Colorado (Democrat) – Although a primary has not been held to choose candidates, both likely Republican contenders have narrow leads on Democratic Senator Michael Bennet and his primary opponent Andrew Romanoff.
* Florida (Republican) – Republican Marco Rubio leads if Democrat Kendrick Meek wins the August primary. But if Democrat Jeff Greene is the winner, then Governor Charlie Crist, an independent, is favored. Meek leads in the primary RCP average by 0.7 percentage point over Greene. The RCP projection for the Senate is calculated with a Rubio lead.
* Illinois (Democrat) – Republican Mark Kirk leads Democrat Alexi Giannoulias by 1.7 percentage points.
* Kentucky (Republican) – Republican Rand Paul leads Democrat Jack Conway by 3.6 percentage points.
* Missouri (Republican) – Republican Roy Blunt leads Democrat Robin Carnahan by 5.3 percentage points.
* Nevada (Democrat) – Democrat Harry Reid leads Republican Sharon Angle by 3.7 percentage points.
* New Hampshire (Republican) – No primary yet, but Republican favorite Kelly Ayotte is ahead of Democrat Paul Hodes by 7.6 percentage points.
* Ohio (Republican) – Republican Rob Portman and Democrat Lee Fisher are virtually tied, with Portman holding a 0.7 percentage point lead.
* Pennsylvania (Democrat) – Republican Pat Toomey leads Democrat Joe Sestak by 2.3 percentage points.
* Washington (Democrat) – No primary yet, but incumbent Democrat Patty Murray leads favored Republican candidate Dino Rossi by 2 percentage points.
* Wisconsin (Democrat) – Democrat Russ Feingold leads likely Republican candidate Ron Johnson by 2 percentage points.
Republicans also hold commanding leads in four states held by Democrats — Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana and North Dakota.
