Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari returned home on Tuesday from official foreign visits to a chorus of criticism over his government's response to the worst flooding in the country's history.
The floods were triggered by exceptionally heavy monsoon rains over the upper Indus river basin over nearly two weeks and have ploughed a swathe of destruction more than 1,000 km (600 miles) long across the country.
Two million people are homeless and the lives of about 13 million people, or about 8 percent of the population of the nuclear-armed U.S. ally, have been disrupted.
Here are some questions and answers on implications of the disaster for Zardari and his government.
WILL THE CRISIS BRING DOWN THE GOVERNMENT
No, that is very unlikely. A widespread perception that the government has been slow to respond has brought sharp criticism. Zardari, already unpopular in many quarters, enraged his critics when he departed for official visits to London and Paris as the catastrophe was unfolding. But the ruling coalition, led by Zardari’s party, has a comfortable majority in parliament and there has been no sign of the coalition falling apart over the floods. While the opposition, led by the party of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, has been critical, there has been no move to launch street protests which could trigger a political crisis and bring down the government. Analysts say the opposition is content to see the government struggle while it bides its time in the run-up to the next general election, due by 2013.
MIGHT THE MILITARY STEP IN?
No. Analysts see no chance of a move by the military, which has ruled the country for more than half of its 63-year history, to seize power. The military responded quickly to the floods, rescuing many people from the raging waters, and it will emerge from the crisis with its reputation enhanced. The military saw its image dented over the course of nearly a decade of army-led rule, which ended in 2008, and analysts say it is in no rush to step back in to politics and stage a coup over a natural disaster. Army commander General Ashfaq Kayani, whose term in office was extended for three years by the government last month, has vowed to keep the army out of politics. It also has its hands full battling militants in the northwest.
HOW IS THE GOVERNMENT DOING ON OTHER PROBLEMS?
The civilian government inherited an economy in crisis and was forced to turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) months after taking power in 2008 for emergency financing of $11.3 billion. While the economy has remained fragile, it has begun to stabilise despite some problems meeting IMF targets. Pakistani stocks, though they have lost 4.26 percent since July 28 when the floods began, have still gained 6.4 percent this year after a surge of 63 percent last year. But a Finance Ministry official said on Tuesday the floods would dent gross domestic product (GDP) growth and a target of 4.5 percent for this financial year would have to be lowered.
Pakistan’s other main problem is the fight against Islamist militants. The army has made significant gains in forcing Pakistani Taliban fighters out of northwestern strongholds over the past couple of years although they remain a potent danger. The government has succeeded to a great extent in persuading a sceptical public that the militants pose a deadly threat to Pakistan, not just to the unpopular United States. The government has overseen an improvement in often fraught relations with the United States and ties with India are back on track although no breakthroughs are expected between the nuclear-armed rivals. Relations with Afghanistan have improved significantly since this government came to power.
