It’s been almost two months since Ukrainians elected a parliament. But the authorities can’t seem to convene lawmakers and produce a coalition government.
Ukraine’s economic and geopolitical future is at stake, while the five parties elected to make laws continue to battle for allies, power and time. The grand prize is the Prime Minister’s seat, coveted by former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, the team of President Viktor Yushchenko, who fired Tymoshenko last fall, and the Regions party, whose leader, Viktor Yanukovych, was Tymoshenko’s predecessor.
The other two parliament players, the Communists and Socialists, are leftist and didn’t garner enough votes to lead the way in coalition talks.
This last fact may be indicative of a solution to the political impasse. Our Ukraine, Byut and Regions may be political enemies. What’s more, Regions may be tainted from its role in the fraudulent 2004 presidential vote, but they, like Our Ukraine and Byut, are driven and backed by business interests which are increasingly reaching out West to expand and tap into Western capital markets to modernize their factories. The Socialists, considered a partner along with Byut and Our Ukraine, have consistently pushed leftist policies and blocked free market reforms.
A grand coalition including Byut, Our Ukraine and Regions would ensure a constitutional majority and thus provide the unity to keep the country on the road to reform. The alternative is five more years of sabotaged economic reforms.
Some have called for the renewal of the Orange Coalition. This is possible too, but the Regions, popular in the nation’s industrial east, would definitely have to get some top posts. Yushchenko would still hold sway in foreign policy. Others are worried by Tymoshenko’s populist tendencies, which are said to scare away foreign investors. The chances of this are minimal, with the other two parties on board.
Tymoshenko’s populism is based on the kind of energy and commitment that is needed to get things done. Moreover, having taken the moral high ground, the braided femme fatal would be forced to play it straight.
Conflict seems inevitable for the foreseeable future, which like the recent past must be built on a sound economy. But a grand coalition with Tymoshenko as premier might be the fight in which Ukraine has the best chance of winning. But for this to happen, Tymoshenko needs to drop her populistic, harsh and uncompromising opposition to enter into a coalition including Regions.
