The election of Joseph Biden as the 46th president of the United States is good news for Ukraine, for obvious reasons.
It puts an end to the bromance between Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and Donald J. Trump, the soon-to-depart leader of the free world. It is good riddance to Trump, who tried to extort Ukraine for his own political ambitions, and ended up getting impeached for it. Only a strong bipartisan majority in Congress saved a supportive U.S. foreign policy.
The new occupant of the Oval Office is better informed about Ukraine than arguably any U.S. president before him. During his two terms as vice president, Biden visited Ukraine six times. He was instrumental in pushing ex-President Petro Poroshenko to carry out anti-corruption reforms. We expect he will be the first president since George W. Bush in 2008 to visit Ukraine again.
Understandably, his election resulted in exuberant optimism in Ukraine.
Reformers expect that President Biden will continue the work of Vice President Biden, but do it even better, with more authority. Europeans happy to get rid of the divisive Trump can also be expected to react more warmly to Biden’s foreign policy initiatives, which undoubtedly will include rebuilding frayed transatlantic ties, a stronger NATO, and a tougher and more unified Western stance against Russia.
Some in Ukraine get specific and dream that Biden will help resolve the deadlocked standoff between the administration of President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Constitutional Court.
While some of these hopes are well-founded, and we certainly share the expectation that Biden’s presidency will be good for Ukraine, Biden is not a miracle worker.
Let’s get realistic: Ukraine isn’t a top priority. Hopefully, it is somewhere in the top 10, and it was welcome news that Ukraine came up in reports of his initial phone calls with the leaders of Germany and France.
But Biden is about to take control of a country in crisis, with a suffering economy and divided society, where COVID-19 has infected and killed more people than anywhere else in the world. He has to cope with threats from China and Russia. He has to reclaim American leadership in promoting democracy and preventing global warming. “Throwing out all the corrupt judges in Ukraine” is way down the list.
It is more reasonable to expect Biden to help rekindle Zelensky’s anti-corruption drive. The key word is “help.” Ukrainians will need to do most of the work and show commitment for real change. The nation must not fall into a state of learned helplessness, unable to resolve problems on its own, and delegate the responsibility to Biden or anyone else.
For a good example of the role the U.S. can play in helping Ukraine, look at the firing of the useless and obstructionist Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin in 2016. Civil society and pro-reform lawmakers campaigned for months to get Shokin out. Biden made the final push, telling Poroshenko that Shokin had to go. It worked.
The Biden administration can help rein in the corrupt old political elites and Russian agents in Ukraine. It can be a great help, but it will be only one component of Ukraine’s success. The rest is in Ukrainians’ hands.
