The warm-up meetings, interviews and statements in London among the G7 ministers and the heavy schedule of meetings on May 6 in Kyiv for U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken foreshadowed a visit of symbolism, show and, perhaps, superficiality.
Whatever was talked about in private, no new commitments, financial or political, were announced publicly during Blinken’s day-long visit. “Pressing the flesh and PR event and show of support,” summarized longtime Ukraine watcher, London-based analyst Timothy Ash.
So where does this leave Ukraine-U.S. relations?
It leaves Ukraine still hoping for stronger military aid and greater political leadership from the US specifically, and the West in general, to ultimately find safer geopolitical ground as members of NATO and European Union. President Volodymyr Zelensky apparently got no guarantees that the US would take a stronger role in forcing Russia to end its ongoing war, now in its eighth year. And nothing came out of the G7 meeting to give Ukraine any hope of stronger sanctions against the Kremlin soon. To the contrary, Blinken emerged from a May 4 meeting with German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas – no friend of Ukraine – with a toothless statement about the US remaining opposed to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, but no hint of tougher sanctions to stop the completion of the Russian-German pipeline that could deliver a death blow to Ukraine’s historic (and profitable) role in transporting gas from Russia to Europe.
And it leaves tens of thousands of Russian soldiers massed on Ukraine’s eastern borders, ready to launch a deeper invasion of Ukraine on any pretext – including “protecting” the newly minted 500,000 Russian citizens in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas.
It leaves the US, undoubtedly, still wondering what is the best strategy for helping Ukraine to help rid itself of crippling corruption. As Ukraine’s 30th anniversary as a nation approaches, it still has successfully prosecuted no one of consequence for corruption. The oligarchs remain more powerful than the state and just as selfish as always. And much progress remains to be done in de-Sovietizing and privatizing the economy as well as creating trusted democratic institutions that will attract foreign investment.
The public mood? In survey after survey, Ukrainians say the nation is headed in the wrong direction – but don’t necessarily blame Zelensky for their troubles. So there remains hope that this administration can finally turn things around and make headway on solving the nation’s many problems. At least it still has some time to do so as voters, according to polls, are very unlikely to turn to politicians of the past in the next election.
Kurt Volker, the former US special envoy to Ukraine, had it right when he wrote in an op-ed column on May 6: “Even in the best of times, Ukraine has often viewed the West as insufficiently supportive of Ukraine’s security and membership in Euro-Atlantic institutions, while the West has viewed Ukraine as insufficiently clear and committed to strengthening the rule of law and rooting out corruption.”
He wrote that the two nations share many common interests, “whether it is in pushing back on Russian aggression, implementing reform and strengthening rule of law, or advancing Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration.”
The task for the Biden administration, Volker writes, is to “establish that the U.S. and Ukraine are genuinely seated on the same side of the table, facing common problems together, rather than pushing against each other…no hectoring.”
He also wisely advises to achieve consensus among NATO members before pushing formal recognition of a Membership Action Plan.
The next big date on the upcoming calendar for Ukraine is a likely June meeting between Biden and Putin somewhere in Europe. Let’s hope the two nations, along with European allies, have by then devised more effective strategies and a greater willingness to enact tougher sanctions to get Russia out of Ukraine, once and for all.
