It’s been three years since Petro Poroshenko won the presidency of Ukraine, on May 25, 2014. Swept into power in the wake of the EuroMaidan Revolution, Poroshenko carried the hopes of (most of) the nation, who wanted Ukraine to finally emerge from the Kremlin’s baleful influence and become a truly independent, democratic, westward-looking European state under the rule of law.
It is a credit to Ukrainians that, just three months after the start of Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, with Crimea under military occupation, and Russian proxy forces in the Donbas still threatening to take more territory, the country was able to hold democratic elections that were deemed free and fair by the international community.
Also impressive was Poroshenko’s outright win the first round: He had proved himself to be a candidate the majority of voters could unite behind, even in a country riven by Russian-instigated war and writhing in political and economic turmoil.
But as he entered office, Poroshenko said that the military operation to regain government control over the Donbas should “last hours, not months,” raising hopes that there could be a quick end to Russia’s military meddling in the east.
Those hopes were soon dashed — after initial advances against the invaders, Russia neutralized Ukraine’s airpower advantage by moving in air defense systems (the Buk anti-aircraft missile system that shot down Malaysia Airline’s Flight MH17 on July 17, 2014, was one). The Kremlin then halted Ukraine’s advance by intervening in Ukraine with its regular troops and shelling Ukrainian units from across the border. Ukraine was forced to come to terms at the negotiating table in Minsk.
And the war continues to this day. The failure to end the conflict is the reason why so many other hopes of Ukrainians remain unfulfilled — it is hard to reform a country at war. Visa liberalization with the European Union has been a victory, but not the key one.
It is not Poroshenko’s fault that the war goes on — it is driven by the Kremlin. But he owes it to the country to be sober and realistic about the military threat Ukraine faces, and not allow hopes to be dashed again.
