The time for outrage is over with Nord Stream 2.
The pipeline is a bad deal all around and exposes not just Ukraine, but also Europe, to the ongoing energy blackmail of the Kremlin. Moreover, it deepens ties between Russia and Germany at a time when Vladimir Putin should be isolated, ostracized and face crushing sanctions.
Promising legal challenges should continue to ensure that Gazprom does not monopolize natural gas supplies and pipelines to Europe.
But, in reality, the political fight is not to be won.
The time to stop Nord Stream 2 has likely come and gone. A more robust fight should have started in 2015, when the project was launched despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a year earlier; its shoot-down of Malaysia Airlines, killing all 298 aboard; and all the assassinations, chemical-weapons use, war crimes, and cyberattacks that have occurred since.
But, while it’s tempting to keep complaining about this mistake, President Volodymyr Zelensky shouldn’t waste his precious time on a last-ditch plea to stop the pipeline when he meets with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Aug. 22 in Kyiv and U. S. President Joe Biden in Washington, D.C., on Aug. 30. Biden and Merkel will simply tune him out.
They’re not reversing course.
Biden’s even willing to let the Taliban take over Afghanistan rather than commit U.S. troops to the 20-year lost war. He’s not likely to reverse himself to stop this pipeline.
Ukraine should seize the moment and focus on the silver linings. Eventually losing the transit of Russian gas to Europe through Ukraine’s pipelines is financially painful, but it is another significant step forward in severing economic ties with the imperialistic enemy.
Also, this natural gas pipeline, along with its predecessor Nord Stream 1, will hopefully become obsolete sooner rather than later.
The climate change disaster is unfolding at a faster rate. It will force the world to abandon new investments in oil and natural gas and switch to renewable energies as fast as possible, if mankind has any hope of preventing the planet from overheating.
Ukraine, despite huge missteps, can still get ahead of the curve on renewable energy with the right public policies in place.
Ukraine has abundant land for solar panels and abundant wind for that form of energy.
Additionally, if promising new nuclear power technologies emerge, Ukraine could conceivably reduce its consumption of oil, natural gas and coal to a bare minimum.
So what should Ukraine do?
Zelensky should use the 1,000+-word joint U.S-German statement on July 21, 2021, as a guide to getting the maximum amount of financial, political, security and technical commitments from the two Western allies.
Played the right way, Ukraine could win big.
Played the wrong way, Ukraine could end up being ignored by the two powerhouses as a corrupt and complaining nuisance.
The U. S. and Germany have pledged to increase Ukraine’s security and stiffen sanctions against further Russian aggression, force the Kremlin to play fair on energy issues — including allowing third-party access to Nord Stream 2 — and help Ukraine make the successful transition to accelerate its energy transformation.
This transition includes speeding up integration with the European energy grid, and building greater capacity in renewable energy and the promising hydrogen field.
The pledged $1 billion “Green Fund” for Ukraine is cheap and inadequate, but maybe the leaders of economies with combined economies of $25 trillion can be shamed and encouraged to be more generous, not only on the energy front but in bolstering Ukraine’s military might.
Germany and the U.S. need to be pressed on the reality that the weak and poorly enforced sanctions against Russia have done nothing to stop its aggression against Ukraine or the West.
Much more needs to be done.
Moreover, Russia’s Gazprom is already using energy as a weapon by cutting natural gas supplies to Europe to drive up prices and send the message it wants Nord Stream 2 operational as soon as possible.
This behavior is deserving of more sanctions now.
Ambassadors Daniel Fried, Richard Morningstar and Andras Simony outline the possibilities in a recent op-ed published by the Atlantic Council. Politically, Ukraine should hope for Green Party victory in Germany’s September elections. Its leaders have opposed Nord Stream 2 and supported tougher stances against Russia.
A Green Party chancellor may just slow the certification of Nord Stream 2 enough for Ukraine to gain leverage for the best deal possible from the U.S., Germany and Russia.
