Ukraine’s government conceded the obvious this week: that the nation cannot lift its tough quarantine and social-distancing restrictions at least through May 11. They hope Ukraine’s rising number of coronavirus infections and COVID‑19 deaths will peak by May 8.
Don’t bet on it. Ukraine is flying blind.
The nation simply has conducted too few tests to know the extent of the coronavirus’ spread in Ukraine. So they have no way of knowing when the peak will hit and how high it will be.
Moreover, even if Ukraine’s best minds on the issue are correct, no nation can safely ease a lockdown only days after the peak. Take the Netherlands as an example: The Dutch have lost more than 4,000 lives to COVID‑19, compared to less than 200 for Ukraine. But while the Netherlands believes the number of coronavirus cases may have peaked, it is keeping its restrictions through May 19.
We are guessing that Ukraine’s government on April 22 simply set May 11 as the new possible end date of the quarantine because they did not want people to lose hope. May 12 would come right after the all-important holidays — Labor Day on May 1 and Victory Day on May 9. Culturally, Ukrainians expect the first two weeks of May as down time anyway.
But even if the restrictions were lifted on May 12, it would still mean that the disruption of Ukraine’s economy will have lasted for two months. The pain is increasing daily. A more likely date for the end of the lockdown is June 1 or later. Why do we say this?
According to the Ukrainian government, 72,296 tests had been conducted as of April 23. We don’t even know how many people have been tested. Is it 1 person tested 72,296 times? Or 72,296 people tested once? We don’t know. Much of the early testing was so prone to errors.
“We’re testing almost 5,000 people daily,” Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmygal said. By contrast, Germany is conducting 50,000 daily with plans to do more. Also, by comparison, the state of Minnesota in the United States — with 5 million people compared to Ukraine’s 38 million — will start testing 20,000 people daily. New York remains the U.S. leader.
We have three stories on testing — two in the PDF replica and online, one from Igor Kossov explaining why Ukraine’s testing program lags and another from Bermet Talant on how Ukraine stacks up to other nations. Anna Myroniuk has an online story about the best type of tests.
High costs are one reason why Ukraine is behind, along with neglect of its health care system. As Dr. Richard Styles writes in an op-ed, “for now, we will have to continue to rely on containment and lockdown and to assess how countries with effective and scientific plans will manage this process.”
