After an election forged by Alexander Lukashenko led to thousands of people taking to the streets in protest, the Belarus revolution appears to be in a stalemate.
Neither Lukashenko, nor the country’s opposition can gain an upper hand in the month-long standoff.
But there is a worrying direction the situation is taking: Both sides are encouraging Russia to intervene on their side.
For Lukashenko, it’s nothing new. He has been selling the idea of a Union State between Belarus and Russia and promising substantial benefits to his Kremlin patrons.
However, if Lukashenko’s incentive is clear – the dictator reigning for over 26 years was able to enrage his democratic neighbors by promoting lies against Western countries and torture against his own people – the incentive of the pro-democratic opposition to seek Russia’s support looks naïve and dangerous.
On Sept. 9, opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who likely was robbed of a victory at the ballot, recorded a video address to the Russian people pleading them for support.
“At no stage was it a fight against Russia,” said Tikhanovskaya about the protest. “(Belarusians) are very grateful to the Russians who support the struggle of the Belarusian people for freedom.”
On the same day, Nobel Prize recipient Svetlana Alexievich, a prominent critic of Lukashenko, had a similar message.
“Why are you silent when you see a small, proud nation being trampled? We are still your brothers,” said Alexievich.
It’s strange to see people fighting for freedom choosing to appeal to Russia.
Indeed, Russia isn’t the place to look for freedom – or for support. The country led by Vladimir Putin feasts on weaknesses of its neighbors.
Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova have all something to say about Russia’s “brotherly love.”
In 2014, after the EuroMaidan Revolution ousted corrupt president Viktor Yanukovych, Russia occupied Crimea, eastern Donbas and started a war that killed nearly 15,000 people. Ten years prior, during the Orange Revolution, Russia was actively preaching for then-President Leonid Kuchma to topple the revolution by force.
In no way an authoritarian state like Russia will support a democratic revolution against a neighboring authoritarian regime.
People fighting for freedom shouldn’t look for support in Russia, unless they are looking to trade one dictator for another.
As for Ukraine, it’s a yet another wake up call. The Belarus opposition is for sure pro-democratic, yet it’s foolish to expect that a country where many support Russia’s annexation of Crimea would suddenly become a trusted ally in the near future.
