NATO is meeting in part to discuss Russia, Belarus and Ukraine on June 14 and Ukraine is not invited.
In early May, the alliance decided that only member states would attend because, as Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, it will be a short summit. Expected meetings to consider Ukraine’s and Georgia’s paths towards membership have been scrapped.
The decision disappointed those who expected this to be the year when Ukraine receives a membership action plan, or MAP. But the snub should have been expected. Even though numerous NATO allies publicly speak in support of Ukraine, a membership plan is unlikely to come soon, if at all.
The top reason cited by the allies is that Ukraine hasn’t done enough to reform itself. They have a point.
Judicial and military reforms are especially problematic. The office of the prosecutor general is still ineffectual and judges still do whatever they want. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s first and only civilian defense minister was recently fired and replaced with a Soviet-era general, reneging on a major NATO expectation that the military has to be in civilian hands.
Ukraine obviously needs to knuckle down and finish these reforms. But it’s not as if it’s been standing still. Out of the 219 NATO standards that were supposed to be elaborated in 2018–2020, Ukraine has adopted more than 90%, according to the Reanimation Package of Reforms, a coalition of Ukrainian anti-corruption watchdogs.
The organization noted that Ukraine has adopted more standards than Montenegro did, which became a NATO member in 2017.
“Unfulfilled reforms” is a convenient reason for NATO allies. Some of the 30 member nations would be reluctant to admit Ukraine even if it fulfilled 100% of everything that’s been asked of it.
Let’s face it, Ukraine’s membership is a geopolitical issue that is still too hot for many nations. Some in NATO are outright Kremlin apologists and appeasers.
But in the main, the alliance is reluctant to admit a country that’s under attack by Russia, because then NATO would actually be forced to defend it as a NATO member No one wants to actually fight against Russia, which is more determined, better equipped and significantly crazier than many Western powers.
Russia is quite aware of all the divisions. For the Kremlin, keeping the war in the eastern Donbas going indefinitely helps further the aim of destroying Ukraine’s chances of NATO membership.
The Kremlin has positioned itself as a defender against NATO’s aggressive expansionism. Of course, that propaganda is hooey since the alliance is a defensive one that, sadly, has gone too far in placating and accomodating Vladimir Putin’s violent, imperial rule — like the rest of the West. In the meantime, Ukraine will continue to face down Russia all by itself as its hopes for membership slowly die, along with its soldiers.
