But behind the scenes, Kremlin watchers speculate, Russian diplomats will be offering a “grand bargain” to their U.S. counterparts: Give us a free hand in Ukraine, and we won’t make any mischief in Syria.
There are reasons to suspect such a bargain. Russia has been open about its military involvement in Syria, in contrast to its “plausible denials” of any presence in Ukraine. News of the deployment of Russian troops, tanks and probably air power to prop up the faltering Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria also coincided with less fighting in the Donbas and conciliatory noises from the Kremlin on holding elections in occupied territories in line with the Minsk II agreement.
Realignments in the leadership of the Kremlin’s proxy authorities in the Donbas, with more “pragmatic leaders” propped up in Donetsk, also indicate that the Kremlin wants to appear more cooperative on Ukraine and the Minsk peace process. But we think they are just trying to lull the West. It could be an opening bid that sees Moscow give ground on its support for Assad, while Washington backs off Moscow’s meddling in the Donbas and Crimea.
The United States should not be tempted by such a deal. For one thing, Russia’s military buildup in Syria appears more to be aimed securing its interests in the region – the Tartus naval depot and access to the airbase at Latakia – rather than heralding a military intervention.
For another, letting Moscow have its way in the Donbas – establishing another frozen conflict and a political entity within Ukraine that the Kremlin will use to destabilize Ukraine and change its foreign policy – will not only be perceived in Kyiv as a sellout, it will lead to future problems for the West. A Kremlin emboldened by “success” in the Donbas will start to look elsewhere for wins in its supposed sphere of influence.
Russia will present the West with a choice between less mischief in Syria or more mischief in Ukraine. The West should choose neither. Continuing to put pressure on the Kremlin to fulfill its commitments in the Minsk accords is the better path to peace in Ukraine.
And it has the added advantage of allowing the West to be seen as sticking to the principles it supposedly avows, rather than selling out Kyiv for geopolitical gain elsewhere.
