Whenever a U.S. secretary of state and a Turkish president visit Ukraine in the same week, it should be reason for celebration. But the visits of Mike Pompeo on Jan. 31 and Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Feb. 3, while good in and of themselves, fell short of the mark.
Pompeo’s message of unwavering support for Ukraine has long been undercut by the Trump administration that he serves with partisan fervor. U. S. President Donald J. Trump, as the world knows, is hostile toward Ukraine and fawning with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. He unsuccessfully pressured first one president, Petro Poroshenko, and then a second, Volodymyr Zelensky, into investigating his top rival, former U. S. Vice President Joseph Biden, for political reasons. Combined with the withholding of a White House visit and a hold on $391 million in aid, it was an impeachable abuse of power. But Trump was acquitted on Feb. 5 by a cowed and spineless Republican-controlled Senate.
Pompeo, moreover, came across as insincere when, before taking off on his visit to Kyiv, he asked a National Public Radio reporter: “Do you think that Americans care about Ukraine?”
Now that Trump no longer faces the threat of being removed from office, Ukraine is likely to find more White House indifference — at best — to its plight. Only a strong bipartisan majority in Congress will keep a policy of strong support for Ukraine. Pompous Pompeo couldn’t deliver anything — not the name of the next U.S. ambassador to Kyiv, not a new special U.S. envoy on Russia’s war, not a date for a Trump meeting in the Oval Office with Zelensky.
As for Erdogan, his presence is, of course, a positive. He is a powerful leader of a southern neighbor with twice as many people as Ukraine and a far stronger economy. Turkey is an important partner for Ukraine — both politically and economically. Erdogan has helped free Crimean Tatar leaders by using his influence on Putin, and, during his most recent visit, he denounced Russia’s illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula. The high turnout among Turkish and Ukrainian businesspeople to an event (at which the presidents were more than two hours late) reveals the strong and deep ties between the two economies. There is plenty of untapped potential in this trade relationship.
But here again, the two presidents had nothing to offer. They repeated the goal of doubling bilateral trade to more than $10 billion annually. They unconvincingly promised to complete a free trade agreement soon. That’s hardly news in Ukrainian-Turkish relations. The free trade agreement has been on the bilateral agenda for 12 years. Progress has been minimal.
The reality is that both nations have been unable to reach an agreement because of domestic protectionist concerns. Turkey doesn’t want to be flooded with cheap Ukrainian agricultural imports. Ukraine doesn’t want to be overwhelmed by cheap Turkish textiles. Both nations are seeking to protect their metallurgy industries. While there have been attempts to find a compromise that would satisfy both Kyiv and Ankara, they have not been successful. Still, Ukrainian Economy Minister Timofiy Mylovanov thinks the $10 billion target can be reached without a trade deal. He could be right. Both economies are growing, and, with the advent of mutual visa-free travel in 2017, people in both nations are getting to know each other better.
Nonetheless, both Pompeo and Erdogan gave the impression of making perfunctory visits, preoccupied by other matters, and unwilling to engage the public much.
