No one should be surprised by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s video blog on the kremlin.ru website. Medvedev is seeking to blatantly interfere into Ukrainian domestic affairs ahead of the Jan. 17 presidential election. In slamming President Victor Yushchenko’s pro-Western foreign policy, Medvedev simultaneously jabbed at Kyiv’s Western allies.
By his words and actions, Medvedev rejected U.S. President Barack Obama’s notion that no nation has the right to seek control over a neighboring sovereign nation. Russia’s leadership still sees Ukraine and other former Eastern bloc countries within their “sphere of influence.”
Dressed in black, the cold-faced Medvedev resembled Darth Vader, villain from the Star Wars movie. In the message to Ukrainians on the anniversary of Russia’s bloody war with Georgia, Medvedev almost seemed to be saying: “Feel the power of the dark side. Together we can rule the empire. Join the dark side, or else …”
But, unfortunately, this is no on-screen adventure. Kremlin threats should be taken seriously. The regime led by Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin harbor far-reaching aims for their authoritarian and imperialistic Russia.
Medvedev’s video blog was an attempt to sway voter influence in Ukraine towards a Moscow-friendly presidential candidate. Moscow wants Kyiv’s next president to be subservient and drop rhetoric about joining NATO, for example. Russia could inspire separatist elements in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in order to divert attention from Russia’s economic misery at home. Their message in doing so: We need to protect our Russian brothers in Ukraine.
When it flexes its muscle, the Russian Bear hopes to scare European countries away from Ukraine, convincing them that trouble is brewing on the borderland, and it is too much trouble for them to get involved into this fight. Countries that have long wavered on bringing Ukraine into NATO, such as France and Germany, could remain fearful of Russia’s response.
The stakes are high. How should Kyiv respond? What should it do?
Firstly, learn from Georgia’s mistakes. Don’t take the bait. Don’t be provoked. President Victor Yushchenko responded in a measured, calm way. Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko had not responded at all by Aug. 13.
The diplomatic road ahead is delicate. Ukrainian leaders shouldn’t give Russia a reason to stir up more trouble, or declare that their Black Sea Navy fleet must remain in Crimea beyond 2017 to protect ethnic Russians, for example.
Staying friends with Russia while pushing ahead with Western integration is the best path for Ukraine. The nation would bolster its ability to do so by strengthening its economy and diversifying energy supplies. Ukraine also must construct a democracy that outlasts the Putin-Medvedev duo and is seen as an attractive alternative by stifled Russians.
Most importantly, to achieve success in these endeavors, political consensus is crucial. Otherwise, Ukraine will remain divided and conquerable.
