Philosopher Karl Marx once wrote that history repeats itself, “first as tragedy, then as farce.” That couldn’t be more relevant today.
On May 19, Ukrainian lawmaker Andriy Derkach called a press conference and revealed recordings of alleged phone conversations between former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and former U. S. Vice President Joseph Biden from 2016. The recordings demonstrated, Derkach claimed, that Biden had used $1 billion in U.S. aid to prevent the country’s prosecutor general from investigating his son’s involvement in corruption.
It would have been a shocking revelation — were it not for a few key problems. All of these accusations had long ago been disproven, and the tapes revealed nothing new. Derkach was pushing a conspiracy theory that had already burnt its way through American politics last year.
UkraineGate, as that scandal came to be called, was a tragedy for Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky had just entered office and was trying to build strong relations with his country’s partner, the United States. Then, President Donald Trump asked him during a July phone call to investigate his rival Biden and untrue accusations that Ukraine — not Russia — had interfered in the 2016 presidential election. To make matters worse, Trump suspended nearly $400 million in critical military aid to put pressure on Zelensky.
The Ukrainian government found itself in a catch‑22. It could give in and endorse lies to win the short-term favor of Trump, but damage its ties with the Democrats and, potentially, the next president of the United States. Or it could refuse on principle, but lose the aid and destroy its crucial ties with the current U.S. administration.
The Zelensky administration got lucky. A whistleblower complaint and journalistic scrutiny brought Trump’s attempts to extort Kyiv to public attention. Trump would be impeached. Although the Republican-controlled Senate would eventually acquit him of any wrongdoing, the scandal forced Trump to back off and release the aid.
Now, with Election 2020 rapidly approaching, Derkach — one of several Ukrainian politicians pushing Trump’s narrative — is trying to resurrect the conspiracy theories behind UkraineGate.
This time, however, it’s a farce.
During his press conference, Derkach drew fantastical, unsubstantiated conclusions based upon the not-particularly-revelatory recordings. He claimed Ukraine was under “external control” and said Biden had run the state’s top prosecutor’s office, three political parties in parliament and the Cabinet of Ministers. He alleged that controversial financier and philanthropist George Soros was involved, despite his name never being mentioned in the recordings.
It was political theater in its most absurdist form.
But there is still danger ahead. With Biden now leading in the 2020 presidential polls, Trump will try to again use these same conspiracy theories against him. Ukraine can expect to become a political bludgeon.
Kyiv must tread carefully. The government should not lend credence to any of Derkach’s accusations to avoid helping Trump turn the scandal back against Ukraine.
Sadly, it appears Zelensky does not understand this. On May 20, he said that law enforcement should investigate the recordings, as Poroshenko’s actions in them could qualify as treason. Such an investigation has now been opened.
If Zelensky thinks he will be able to take revenge on his predecessor without doing damage to his country, he is deeply deluded. And that is a tragedy.
