Certainly, President Viktor Yanukovych would like to get greater integration with Europe. However, he’s been quite naughty this year. The EU has warned him repeatedly about negative consequences for failing to release leading political opposition members, primarily Yulia Tymoshenko. Her imprisonment is widely seen as a perversion of justice. Instead of amends, Ukraine’s corrupted legal system seems determined to prevent her contesting the 2012 presidential elections. She’s seen as the favorite against the president.
Progress towards EU integration, which Ukraine views as its birthright, would be a heavenly gift. Public opinion is consistently supportive while trade–other than energy– is rising with Europe at Russia’s expense. This will continue as Ukraine “normalizes” relations with Europe from travel to telecommunications. Its nouveau riche have personal and business ties while its children study there.
However, some member states–fearing Ukraine’s size, natural resource base, agriculture and science–impede integration with the “doesn’t meet standards” excuse while the economic crisis there have many Ukrainians asking: Where’s the benefit? Nonetheless, integration is imperative for Ukraine’s peace, security and economic wellbeing. It needs to balance further incursions by Russia with stronger European links. For obvious economic and historic reasons, EU needs this too.
In turn, Russia wants Ukraine from St. Nick. It has put tremendous pressure–from energy to the Russian Orthodox Church (an arm of the KGB in Soviet times) — on Ukraine to join the Russia-led free trade agreement. Signed a few weeks ago, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin hailed it as “a fundamental document that will lay the groundwork for long-term relations.” Ratification is to take place in January unless the EU makes Ukraine a better offer. There is still time. The free trade agreement is not being well received. Among others, it undermines Ukraine’s progress within the World Trade Organization, a heavy price.
So is the cost of reversing democracy at home and further integration with Russia, a failing state and a mistrusted ally. Furthermore, it appears the political love-in for Putin is ending. He was booed by thousands in pre-election rallies. He will win the presidency but if the arrest of Russia’s election watchdog is any measure, violation of rights will continue and with them comes greater unrest, violence and more.
For Ukraine, alignment with Russia might gain short-term energy price relief, but it will pull it into a space which will fail its longer term goals including democracy building, individual wellbeing and other free trade arrangements. Closer relations with Russia spell long-term problems for Ukraine, a gift to make the devil grin.
And what of the EU? What makes it a fine gift?
It has been toying with Ukraine since the end of World War I, dividing it between Russia or Poland instead of treating it as a country that has fought for and deserves independence. Here, history offers Europe a lesson: dealing with Ukraine via Russo-centric policies is detrimental: both the Treaty of Versailles and the Cold War prove this. The pro-Russia attitude, unfortunately, continues. Since the collapse of the USSR, the EU has been placating Russia, with its puffed up sense of entitlement to the former USSR space, by denying Ukraine entry under the guise of its non-adherence to European standards.
Certainly, the shenanigans surrounding the incarceration of Yulia Tymoshenko are a serious obstacle to going forward. However, Ukraine’s European integration vs. Russia’s aggrandizement are greater issues than the current presidency’s abuse of power. The remarkable Tymoshenko told Europe that from her cell: chose Ukraine, not me, she said.
EU’s best gift is wisdom to serve its best interest by integrating Ukraine: it is too important to be returned to Russia. History shows that the consequences will be dire. But Yanukovych needs to help Europe make the right choice by resolving the Tymoshenko crisis. He needs to realize that keeping her in prison and levying more charges is backfiring.
He’s losing in the polls; she’s gaining. By freeing her and allowing the EU to institutionalize greater ties with Ukraine, he will gain support. Then, should he run a clean election in 2012 (the International Monetary Fund will deal with Ukraine only after a fair election; he may yet have a chance. His other alternative is to pursue the hard-line Putin option; a present from hell for all concerned.)
This may be a good time for countries — Canada, the United States and others– to telephone Yanukovych as friends. If he listens to their advice this will be the best gift for all on St Nicholas day.
And Russia? It will receive a gift too; a little humble pie for a puffed up self-image.
Oksana Bashuk Hepburn, former president of U*CAN Ukraine Canada Relations Inc. and senior policy adviser with the government of Canada, comments on Ukraine’s progress in democracy.
