Democracy of Ukraine is undergoing serious tests these days. Ukrainian government’s steps away from the democratic path have become more evident in the anticipation of Russian president Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Kyiv on May 17-18. As part of the preparation for the visit, Kyiv Oblast court banned pro-democracy opposition groups “Freedom” and “For Ukraine” from organizing a protest rally on the days of the visit.
Seriousness and importance of the commitments that Ukrainian government has so far made with Russia are compelling reasons to believe that Ukraine’s democracy can go down the hill in order to silence objections to deals with Moscow. April was full of sparkling events for Ukraine’s opposition, which blasted the current government for its dubious deals with Russia on gas and extending the lease for Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Crimea. Vyachaslav Kyrylenko, head of For Ukraine opposition party, announced that the opposition including Arseniy Yatseniuk, Yulia Timoshenko, and Yuriy Lutsenko will be united against these Russian – Ukrainian agreements.
In order to preserve a momentum in its relations with Russia and secure the agreements, Viktor Yanukovych government will need to become immune to the opposition empowered by the democratic legacy of the 2004 Orange Revolution. The general fear is that the “April commitments” of the current government will not suffice. Weekly Ukrainian newspaper Dzerkalo Tyzhnya announced before the visit that besides five declared agreements (on demarcation of Ukrainian – Russian border, cooperation on Russian navigation system GLONASS, cooperation between Vneshtorgbank of Russia and Ukrsibbank of Ukraine, cooperation in education and cultural issues), there are three more items on Medvedev’s agenda during his visit to Kyiv. These are on the European security, Black Sea security and Transnistrian conflict.
A joint declaration of Ukraine and Russia on European security now or in the future, could be a major achievement for Russia but a huge blow to Ukraine’s security relations with the West. Russian president Medvedev has long sought for backers of his European security pact whose provisions would effectively make NATO obsolete. If Ukraine makes a joint statement or agree in the future on Medvedev-designed European security, it will further solidify Ukraine’s ties to Russia, distance Ukraine from the West and embolden its pro-western opposition.
Russian – Ukrainian agreement on Black Sea security is another serious question of contention in Ukraine. This was especially evident afterYanukovych won the presidency this year. Yanukovych announced Ukraine’s neutrality with regard to regional security institutions, including NATO.
Opinions vary greatly on Ukraine’s stated neutrality and the so-called new policy of non-alignment into regional security organizations.On April 24, 2010, Council for Foreign and Security Policy, a Ukraine-based pro-western nongovernmental organization, hosted a conference entitled “International Security Forum: From Ukrainian Security to European Security: 21st Century Challenges” in Lviv, Ukraine. The forum gathered well-known intellectuals, opposition parliament members, and philanthropists.
The majority of participants agreed that as Ukraine would not become a NATO member any time soon because of the Russia – Ukraine naval base deal, it needed to formulate a new national security concept. Additionally,former minister of foreign affairs, Volodymyr Ohryzko, stated that non-alignment would be a big financial burden for Ukraine. According to Ohryzko, Ukraine will not be able to sustain financial costs of being non-aligned and provide for its own security independently.
Both external security and energy issues have long been a dividing issue for Ukraine. Speedy tilt towards Russia can trigger fierce opposition from pro-western, democracy-oriented forces and increase their perception that concessions to Russia went too far. Orange Revolution was an unprecedented event in the traditionally non-democratic ex-Soviet space and significantly empowered Ukrainians to make political impact in their country. This is a strong force to keep the government accountable for its actions and President Yanukovch seems to understand that.
Given current government’s strong determination to pursue strong pro-Russian policies, it is very likely that democratic dismantlement will persist in Ukraine in order to silence its vibrant opposition. This should not go unnoticed in the U.S. as well as the EU, as preserving democracy in Ukraine means preserving Western access to Ukraine and other aspiring democracies of the region. IfBarack Obama’s administration views the region, including Ukraine, through the prism of its “reset” policy with Russia, which includes softened tone on democracy problems, it can severely affect the U.S. credibility in the formerSoviet space.
Tamerlan Vahabov, a Washington DC-based analyst, holds MA from Georgetown University, School of Foreign Service and MS from the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School. He previously worked as an analyst at the Interpol General Secretariat and as a U.S. desk officer at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan.His research interests include energy, security and domestic politics in Ukraine, Russia and the Caucasus.
