Last spring, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Paris for talks in the Normandy Format (N4). This usually includes France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine. This time, however, the N4 was incomplete and included only three leaders. Behind closed doors, Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron were joined online by then German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
As part of a small team that accompanied President Zelensky, myself and colleagues waited patiently in a closed room of the Elysée Palace for the conversation to end. There we had a diplomatic conversation with Macron’s military advisers who were dressed proudly in military uniforms and regalia.
Our conversation covered the COVID-19 situation in India and Brazil, before turning to the ongoing situation in Ukrainian Donbas for which the delegation had convened. To my surprise, the advisors were stunned to learn that some 14,000 people had lost their lives in the war with Russia, which was now in its eighth year, that it was the only war in Europe, and that the Kremlin had started it.
With some disbelief at what they heard, one of them even exclaimed: “Why doesn’t anyone write about this?!”
It is perhaps no secret that despite 30 years of independence, Ukraine has not managed to establish as close a relationship with France as Moscow has seemingly been able to achieve.
Not surprisingly, in late January, Macron called on the European Union to make its own security pact with Russia, breaking U.S. calls for unity and action in the face of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Yet, such French shenanigans are trivial compared to Germany’s statements. For several months now, Berlin has continued to insist that it will not supply arms to Ukraine. When the U.S., Britain, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and a number of other countries began transferring weapons for defense against a very likely Russian attack, Germany blocked other countries from supplying weapons it had itself produced.
Moreover, German Navy Commander Vice Admiral Kay-Ahim Schoenbach said during a visit to India that “Crimea is gone and will never come back, this is a fact”. He added that Putin probably “deserves respect” and that we should be guided by the factual state of affairs and not emotions.
Schoenbach’s comments were contrary to Germany’s official position, being to support the creation of the Crimean Platform for the return of the peninsula.
For this diplomatic scandal, he paid with his resignation and apologized, stressing that his words were a personal opinion. But the scandal has left the impression that this opinion could be supported by other German elites.
All this is happening after completion of Nord Stream-2 in September 2021. The pipeline risks being used as a geopolitical weapon against Ukraine and several other EU countries.
The Germans and the French perceive Russia as an equal player. Perhaps they are somehow afraid of or genuinely respect Putin; or perhaps they misunderstand Russia, driven by the logic of a peaceful open economy. It may be that they perceive the fundamental diplomatic instruments created after World War II will continue to hold firm; or it could be that they are simply repeating historical mistakes. Whichever is true, it seems the Russian brute force is enough to make them count as equals.
The ability of Ukraine to influence the decisions of major geopolitical powers is still relatively limited. There is no single reason for this. Rather, a series of political and geopolitical mistakes from the surrender of nuclear weapons in 1994 to the underfunding of information and diplomatic channels through independence.
The ‘victim’ role that some Ukrainian political players have avidly stuck to has also contributed to a losing position. It helps at the outset of the crisis to attract the necessary support, but it does not allow the country to be treated as an equal and strong partner.
So, the behavior of France and Germany may be immoral, but it raises the question of whether blame should be placed squarely at their doors.
After Zelensky came to power in 2019, France and Germany had their sights set on being the catalysts of peace in Ukraine. But after nearly three years of a deteriorating situation, and seeing that the world could demand more, such as Ukraine joining NATO or the EU, they focused on the problems inside their own countries. Both countries have been busy with crucial elections: Germany has a new chancellor for the first time in 16 years, while France is on the cusp of presidential elections this spring. The post-COVID recovery continues to grind on with no imminent sign of the pandemic backing down.
France and Germany are the strongest players in the EU. And even with limited communication from a post-Soviet state, they need to remember that Ukraine has fought over and is deserving of its independence that it is defending at such cost. To prove their real strength, the big players must prevent the globalization of indifference. As Pope Francis put it, “when no one is to blame, everyone is to blame”.
And everyone will reap the benefits of actions that are being taken right now.
