One way or another, it will not last long, for Operation Successor has already began, and it happens more and more frequently that diplomats and journalists are asking for the names of top five candidates for the chief executive to line up votes.
It appears that the best option for the country would be formal and informal leaders of factions being wise enough to give up their personal ambitions, form the government without political party quotas and vote for laws, not trying to get control over cash flows or offices. A neutral candidate or “technocrat” as it discussed could be supported by the parliament.
However, the proposed option of recommending Pavlo Klimkin, the current head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as a technical prime minister got no particular support, as the Verkhovna Rada is obviously unwilling to strengthen the president’s positions.
On the other hand, the level of confidence in their coalition partners is far from being the same as a year before, especially after continuous meddling with former members of Party of Regions and voter fraudsters to get their support. It’s still difficult to figure out how the technocrats in the government will manage to poll votes for their reform laws. Simple pressure exerted by the Western countries and Ukrainian society may be insufficient.
Meanwhile, disintegrating processes in the parliament gather pace, clear evidence of the beginning of pre-election period. Following Batkivshchyna, Samopomich and a number of deputies’ withdrawal from the coalition, it ceased to exist in line with article 83 of the Constitution.
Parliament leaders’ attempts to pretend the coalition still exists are as ridiculous as “legitimate” Yanukovych’s statements made from Rostov. Though there might be enough votes to pass important laws, it is necessary to technically formalize at least something legitimately incorporating factions totaling over 226 deputies.
Nowadays Poroshenko’s block and Narodniy Front (People’s Front) has up to 216 members of parliament together.
The simplest way would be engaging Oleh Liashko’s Radical party (21 MPs), whose management is deciding whether to tactically benefit from offices or strategically refrain from boarding a sinking ship, starting their election campaign in status of an oppositionist.
Though I have not met any known ecologists among the Radicals in a year, I do understand their desire to control the resource-related Ministry of Ecology. Ritual dance around this office has already started. Wishing to hold the country harmless against the Radicals’ voracious appetites, the Ministry of Energy recently said they wouldn’t mind if disposition rights for subsoil resources production licenses were turned from the Ministry of Ecology to their care. Likewise, Oleh Liashko’s desire to become the speaker, and, in line with the Constitution, the second in command in the country is also understandable, for it’s a poor soldier that never wants to become a general. Nevertheless, I’m not sure whether the Radicals themselves believe in it.
Much as the spokespeople of Narodny Front (Yatsenyuk’s party) might claim the coalition still exists or they are not interested in ratings, not every person in the prime minister’s faction shares the same opinion. When early parliamentary elections turned to be imminent, a number of veterans started independent negotiations with other factions, pursuing support of their candidatures in majority constituencies. Their loyalty in the new parliament is the price for naming fragile candidacies in their districts.
I won’t be surprised to see some colleagues from the Narodny Front in other parties, as popularity of some of their deputies is obviously higher than the overall popularity of the party. Nominating a faction representative – Oleksandr Turchynov or, say, Ostap Semerak – for the prime minister to substitute Arseniy Yatsenuk might save the day. Nevertheless, it would only succeed in keeping the present parliamentary balance between two major factions, but not the expectations of the society whose confidence in prime minister’s companions does not exceed 2 percent by the latest estimates.
It’s worthy while mentioning that the presidential bloc is no longer a center of attraction for deputies. While withdrawal of Dmytro Dobrodomov’s Deputies Control’ team from the bloc was predictable due to localelections, withdrawal of heavyweight politicians like Mykola Tomenko, Victor Chumak and other deputies from the Bloc of Petro Poroshenko is a red flag for the faction leaders.
UDAR as a part of a bloc stepped up their own game, and their standpoint differing from the Block of Petro Poroshenko in many aspects voting becomes more and more noticeable. Vitali Klitschko makes a number of trips abroad, and the office of the European People’s party concern themselves with membership of UDAR in the Euuropean center-right family. Despite the merger, the UDAR project can be easily brought back to life.
I believe withdrawal (expulsion?) of some young Euro-optimists, members of anti-corruption platform and majority deputies, who make up a bigger part of the president’s faction, is a matter of time. It’s no longer important what will cause it: avoiding enforcers’ responsibility, forming new coalition with the Radical Party, joint voting with parliamentary groups and the opposition block, conflicts within the faction or nominating a controlled candidate for prosecutor general.
Pragmatic deputies are thinking of their future in the parliament, and the president’s party with its reputation going down as a result of corruption scandals and political intrigues is no longer an inviting place for politicians valuing their reputation and not wishing to share the responsibility for policy implemented by the biggest parliamentary faction, especially after the staged failure of Yatsenyuk’s dismissal.
The current parliament set a trend of social lift, and I do hope young politicians justify the advance.
Parliamentary novices from all the factions are authors and driving force of passing innovative draft laws. They also shed light on political fixed games and break corruption schemes. Having gained experience in tactical and strategic battles, young people claim to be more than just a display of post-Maidan renewal for the Western countries. They are not willing to cover rascals sucking blood from the country after the Revolution of Dignity. It’s more often that they want to be decision-makers, not troublemakers.
The same refers to numerous novices in executive authorities, who came from business and consulting to occupy top positions, and showed a right spirit even in this corrupt system.
I dare say that apart from civil activists, volunteers and internationally trained experts, including technocrats and corruption-fighters in the list would be in fashion in new political season. Nevertheless, the society will still have to figure out who are these and how to deal with them.
A pleasant fact is that becoming one of 450 people’s representatives is not an unattainable goal anymore, unlike several years before. There are many outstanding novices at the president’s and prime minister’s factions.
Samopomich and the Radical Party brought around brand new teams, despite the fact that a question of qualitative comparison of their performance may be raised.
I believe Batkivshchyna balances ideal proportion of young age and experience in the present parliament. The faction is represented 50/50 by MPs with solid work experience at highest government positions and parliamentary novices consisting of both their own youth team and ‘legionaries’ from civil society, military and academic sphere. Moreover, there is a huge talent pool at regional level, which is supported by the second place at elections countrywide.
Should the parliament pass the promised changes to the election legislation, cancelling majority election principle, opening political lists and limiting political advertisement on TV, early elections may become a realistic change of change in the country. Party discipline and professional debates are much better than vote buying at majority constituency and zombifying the population by bright TV commercials.
Whatever messages may be declared from the TV screens at present, the lists have already been made, campaign trail started and political strategists have established the campaign headquarters.
Western countries’ viewpoint is the only safety barrier separating the president of Ukraine from making the final decision.
It was only some weeks ago that a phrase “early elections” terrified foreign diplomats.
At present they are getting ready to plan B bit by bit, for they understand that re-election may be the only way out of the political crisis Ukraine found itself in. The only question is, how long will be a half-life period of the current political system and how long it will take to establish new balance.
