The first round of Ukrainian elections is coming to a close slowly, as the last official numbers flow in from the Central Election Commission. The current atmosphere in the country is one of surprise, and in some cases even disbelief.
Comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s victory doesn’t come as a shock to anyone who has followed Ukrainian politics for the last couple of months and has tracked his ratings. No-one really doubted Zelenskiy would make it to the second round — the real nail-biter was the battle between Batkivshyna Party leader Yulia Tymoshenko and incumbent President Petro Poroshenko for second place. According to the latest numbers, Poroshenko has won that battle against his old rival.
The atmospheres in the political camps of Zelenskiy and Poroshenko last night were superficially similar. Zelenskiy’s camp was basking in euphoria by the time the exit polls came out: gathering 30 percent of the votes and beating Poroshenko by over 13 percent seemed a good reason to break out the champagne. Zelenskiy’s team believe they are heading for victory, and they want everyone to know it.
A lot of questions still remain, though, and it’s unclear whether Zelenskiy’s evasive campaign strategy will make way for a more direct and classical approach in the run-up to the second round. Will we finally see him participate in debates and offer practical solutions to Ukraine’s pressing issues? This remains to be seen.
Despite the fact that the official numbers are still coming in, Poroshenko has already declared himself victor over Tymoshenko. He’s currently is second place with a comfortable 16.02 percent, yet there’s no denying that his popularity is faltering. Having won the elections in 2014 in the first round with 54 percent, the people have made now clear that they don’t have the same unwavering belief in him as they had back then. Poroshenko has understood this message, and so he reached out to Zelenskiy’s voters yesterday, saying that he has heard their grievances and wants them to switch their support to him so he can have another presidential term.
Meanwhile, despite yesterday’s exit polls and today’s further disappointing results, Tymoshenko hasn’t thrown the towel into the ring yet. Her camp remains firm in its belief that Tymoshenko will go forward into the second round. There are dark mutterings among her team workers that Poroshenko, whose influence on the Central Election Commission can’t even be denied by his staunchest defenders, somehow falsified the results.
And with yesterday’s exit polls showing a difference of over 4 percent between Poroshenko and Tymoshenko, and today’s number not offering much more solace to the losing team, one does begin to question how the originally estimated close finish between the two candidates suddenly became an awfully wide gap. It is, at the very least, odd.
Not all is lost for Tymoshenko, however, since the parliamentary elections might offer her another chance for victory. Still, this loss is a bitter pill to swallow. In the past, she has stated multiple times that she has no “plan B” if she is defeated in the presidential race. However, her past statements also show that she will try to prove there had been voting fraud, as she clearly distrusts Poroshenko, and is wary of his influence.
So the further course of the presidential elections will be influenced by Tymoshenko’s reaction, and whether or not she admits defeat.
Anastacia Galouchka is an expert at the International Center for Policy Studies, a Kyiv-based think tank.
