The uprisings streaking through the Arab world are magnificent in intent–greater freedoms and well being– and identical to what some 500 million citizens sought by breaking up the Soviet Union 20 years ago.
Today’s uprisings — legitimized by a heavily engaged, well-educated, freedom-deprived population — mirror the needs of the 90 percent of the 56 million Ukrainians who, among others, precipitated the Soviet Union’s demise.
Then as now, poverty, corruption, state incursion into private lives fueled the unrest. Two decades later, however, many expectations driving Ukraine’s independence have not taken root. Sovereignty is threatened, political opposition imprisoned, courts are corrupt. Nearly a quarter of the population lives on $700 per year, some 10 million have left the country, while Forbes, the financial magazine, identifies some of the world’s richest among its population.
Leaders of the post-uprising period in the Middle East need to do avoid the mistakes that occurred in Ukraine. There, the post-revolution transition was not defined by protesters. Rather, it became an insider’s event. Mouthing democratic and free market slogans, Communist apparatchiks enriched themselves through privatization — most called it piratization–of state assets becoming instant global billionaires topping their assets by tax-free off-shore accounts. Some in the West even mistook the growth of oligarchs as a move towards the free market.
Similarly, institutional restructuring — legislation, executive and judiciary– was co-opted by the old guard; immunity of parliamentarians perpetrated corruption; and the discrepancy between the rich and the poor, coupled by the pressure of Russia to reconstruct its empire by controlling Ukraine led, by 2004, to another massive uprising the Orange Revolution. And once again, the demands of the population — greater freedoms and “criminals in jail”–were not forthcoming. Instead, the incompetent president set in motion what has turned out to be a reversal of some democratic gains since 1991. Meanwhile, those who led both uprisings, the ‘patriotic’ forces, failed to develop, much less implement a post-revolutionary agenda–foreign, defense, economic, social –to serve the people’s well being
The West also squandered opportunities. International instruments designed to assist the emerging democracy too often paralleled the off-the shelf methodologies for aid to developing countries rather than a uniquely sophisticated–highest number of Ph.D.s per capita in the world– but different Ukrainian situation.
Some Western institutions distinguished themselves in the abuse. The European Bank of Reconstruction and Development began by spending hundreds of millions on luxurious infrastructure then went on to charge near-usury interest rates. At 15 percent interest, loans were out of reach for most small and medium enterprises in Ukraine; large ones were overwhelmed by requirements designed for western company practices.
Potential strategic partners from the West were intimidated by distance, foreign language and, simply, ignorance of available opportunities and/or fear of losing investments. Both lenders and donors failed to address such concerns. Those who had an inside track–Communist linkages home and abroad– profited. Self-serving charlatans were aplenty. Even venerable institutions like Harvard’s Institute for International Development had to be closed due to insider scandal. A reconstruction plan on the scale of the post-World War II’s Marshall Plan never materialized.
Ukraine’s Western diaspora, pleased with emerging national symbols, focused on more trivial pursuits– the ‘correct’ spelling of Kyiv vs. Kiev — rather than a robust lobby favoring inoculation of democracy in Ukraine , directed at its own Western governments.
Additionally, obsession with not ‘humiliating’ Russia trumped aspirations. To placate Russia, NATO and the European Union — key engines to Ukraine’s Western integration — waffled on membership and coupled– erroneously to date — economic ‘stability’ with the pro-Russia presidency of Viktor Yanukovych.
Clearly, democrats — indigenous and Western — were unprepared to take charge of the post Soviet collapse in Ukraine. To do better in the Arab uprisings’ aftermath, here are some lessons learned:
· Use the uprising’s objectives –freedom and well-being–as the roadmap for reconstruction;
· Protect institutions from highjacking by better-informed but ideologically out-of-favor insiders;
· Recognize that allies from a previous times may pollute the dawning of a new era with backsliding and must adjust or be dropped;
· Some form of “truth and reconciliation” — reckoning with the former regime — needs to occur.
· Allow equitable access to power and institutions to various groups even those who may be out of favor; Hamas or Islamic Brotherhood, for instance. The will of the people is supreme.
· Encourage friendly states to supply “mentors” with best practices to assist in a quick and smooth transition supportive of local needs.
· Urge other Arab states to develop an indigenous facsimile of the Marshall Plan.
· Ensure monies reach intended recipients and support the uprising’s ideals rather than consultants or charlatans.
· Offer micro-loans– particularly suitable for ‘bazaar-’ mentality countries.
· Ensure against ‘sharks’–states and individuals — waiting to capitalize on the situation with “privatization,” money laundering, off -shore accounts, tax-avoiding schemes, etc.
· Decrease interstate tensions by influencing players like Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu to recognize the Arab reality.
Overall, be guided by the country’s values and on the ground priorities rather than donor-based ones.
The aftershocks of the Middle East uprisings, including outcomes in Libya and elsewhere, will be felt long after they end. As demonstrators create a new world order their leaders and international supporters, dedicated to lasting stability and global peace, need to engage in revolutionary thinking by studying various post revolutionary scenarios especially Ukraine’s which held such promise. For it is certain that opportunists, lurking to hijack the revolutions for their own self interest, are doing just that.
Oksana Bashuk Hepburn was president of U*CAN Ukraine Canada Relations Inc., a consulting firm specializing in brokering international interests in the post-Soviet Union era.
