Armenians who are cynical about the government’s intentions — and that is most of us — do not see anything coming from the Investigative Committee’s pronouncement.
This is nothing but a desperate government attempt to end the protests, which are now in their third week.
That is because, as in Russia, the Investigative Committee is not a government watchdog but a government lapdog. It does not leap from its master’s lap to start an investigation unless the master tells it to.
The government is between a rock and a hard place in these protests, which started in the capital of Yerevan on June 20 but have spread nationwide.
On the one hand, it needs to show a conciliatory side toward the demonstrators to try to sap the energy of their movement. The eventual goal is to discourage the protesters to the point that they throw up their hands and their movement collapses like a house of cards.
On the other hand, the government needs to show its masters in the Kremlin that it is doing something — anything — to end the civil strife.
Armenia knows from the situation in Ukraine what happens when Russia thinks one of its neighbors is not playing ball.
This is the longest-running protest in Armenia in years, and the longer is runs, the more nervous the Russians become.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his minions are terrified that the anti-electricity-price-hike economic-rights movement will morph into a broader anti-government political movement — the kind that ousted Moscow flunky Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine last year.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov underscored that concern by warning the West not to try to foment a color revolution that could topple the Armenian government.
Such revolutions in the early and mid-2000s brought down regimes in Georgia and Ukraine.
As the Armenian demonstrations dragged on, the question for the government was: What can we do to throw a few dinner-table scraps to the protesters while also keeping the Russia pit bull muzzled?
The answer was a phony police-brutality investigation.Police have used water cannons on the protesters, roughed up several and been nasty with journalists, strong-arming them and breaking or confiscating their cameras and other equipment.
When the show of force only steeled demonstrators’ resolve, the government ordered police not to use muscle again. But the die was cast.
The protesters demanded that police brutality be investigated and punished.
To add dramatic flourish to its announcement that it would investigate the cops, the Investigative Committee said it has been studying videotapes of the clashes.
And, lo and behold, it said, the tapes indicated that police had indeed used violence against protesters and journalists, inflicting “significant damage on the legitimate interests of society and the state.”
Whether the tapes and other evidence translate into firings, administrative sanctions or criminal charges against the officers involved, and their police supervisors, remains to be seen. But do not count on it.
I see three possible scenarios here. One is that, after the current civil strife ends, the investigation dies a quiet death, with no individual police officers identified as culprits and thus no punishments laid down.
The second scenario is that the investigation does identify some miscreants, and they receive a slap on the wrist.The third scenario is that the investigation finds fall guys — lower-ranking police whom it punishes with jail time because they are dispensable.
This is a longstanding tactic in Armenia and the rest of the former Soviet Union.
In all three scenarios, the bottom line is that the investigation will not be a serious attempt to right a wrong.
It will be theater — for the Armenian people, the Russians and the rest of the world.It will not yield justice but it may provide the world with some zesty — and even humorous — entertainment.
Popcorn, anyone?
Armine Sahakyan is a human rights activist based in Armenia.
