European oil firms, in particular, are hoping for contracts there. A major possibility is helping Iran modernize its petroleum operations. The country would like to acquire cutting-edge technology and equipment that 35 years of sanctions froze it out of.
Iran’s northern neighbor Armenia is also hoping to benefit when sanctions are eliminated under a nuclear agreement that Iran signed this month with the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France.
There is no time frame yet on the lifting of the sanctions. When it happens, Iran’s international trade will soar, igniting its economy.
Yerevan hopes Iran’s newfound wealth leads to Iran doing more business here in Armenia and helping our country build infrastructure.
Russia’s possessive attitude toward Armenia may dampen Yerevan’s hopes for Iranian investment, however.
Russia views Armenia not as an independent country but as a colony it can dictate to at will. Bolstering that attitude is the fact that Russian companies control large swaths of our economy.
And those companies, whose leaders are close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, do not want Iran cutting into their business in Armenia.
One example is Russian Railways’ opposition to Armenian plans for Iran to build a $3.2-billion, 470-kilometer-long rail line from the Iranian border through Armenia to Georgia, which has rail lines that connect to the Black Sea.
Such a line would allow our landlocked country to send products around the world by sea.
It would also mean that Armenia could obtain sizable chunks of revenue from transporting Iranian products to the other countries in the Eurasian Economic Union — Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
The problem is that our government foolishly signed an agreement under which Russian Railways will be running our train system until 2038.
Russian Railways is not interested in Iranian competition — so it opposes the idea of Iran building a rail line through Armenia.
Such a line would be like “opening a window onto the wall of a neighbor’s house,” Russian Railways President Vladimir Yakunin sniffed.
Armenia’s initial reaction to Yakunin’s comment was to say that it is going ahead with its plans for the Iranian-built line.
“The railway is of vital importance, and no effort should be spared to find investors and to implement the project,” said Gagik Beglarian, the minister of Transportation and Communications.
Armenia’s determination to construct the line is likely to wither when Yakunin whispers in Putin’s ear.
Putin already crushed a more sweeping Armenian economic gambit: joining the EU.
Yerevan was making progress toward EU membership when Putin summoned Armenian President Serzh Sargysan to Moscow in the fall of 2013.
Immediately after that meeting, Sargsyan announced a 180-degree turn-around for Armenia. Instead of joining the EU, he said, Armenia would become a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union.
Another example of Russian companies’ determination to prevent Iranian competition in Armenia involves the energy giant Gazprom, which controls our country’s natural-gas supply and distribution network.
In June of this year, Gazprom browbeat Armenia into selling it a 40-kilometer section of a pipeline originating on the Iranian border. That pipeline had allowed Iran to sell some of its gas to Armenia.
At first Gazprom demanded that the diameter of the pipeline be reduced — so Iran could send less gas in.
Then it insisted that Armenia sell it the pipeline.
It was difficult for Armenia to say no, given that Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller is a Putin confidante.
Stepan Safarian, head of the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs, viewed the forced pipeline sale as a Russian warning that Armenia should not become giddy about getting a surge in business with Iran.
“The deepening of Iran-Armenia relations largely depends” on “the Kremlin’s decisions,” he said.
The sobering underlying message is that Russia will allow only Iran-Armenian deals that will not interfere with Russia’s interests — even if the deals would help Armenia climb out of the economic hole we have long been in.
The Russian attitude toward deals that would help Armenia should surprise no one. It is the classic stance of a colonial master toward its slave: Keep ‘em barefoot and in tatters. As long as you’re wearing Versace, why should you care?
Armine Sahakyan is a human rights activist based in Armenia.