Last summer I traveled to Belarus visitin three major cities, Minsk, Mogilev and Gomel, several villages and meeting with Ukrainian community representatives from another major city, Brest. I was surprised by the relative sophistication of the Belarus infrastructure beginning with the Minsk airport, the national airline Belavia, the major arteries across the country, general cleanliness, gardening, etc. Nevertheless, I left the country largely dismayed and pessimistic as to the future because of the obvious Russian presence everywhere, the pervasive Russian language and Moscow church orthodoxy, the feeling of submission and apathy as to their own fate of the Belarusian people. My own view was generally as if Belarus had been frozen in time. All of the Soviet names remained on the streets, subway stations in Minsk. The University in Mogyliev was a Belarusian-Russian one. There were very few Western manifestations anywhere, including commercial ones. There are McDonald’s restaurants in Belarus but I did not see any.
My friend Valentina and I entered a Belarusian traditional restaurant with blasting Russian music. We requested Belarusian music. The proprietor declined. We began to walk out when he finally acceded. There was no reaction from the Belarusian patrons. Strangely, enough it took two Ukrainians, one from the United States, to make a Belarusian restaurant play Belarusian music instead of Russian.
Recent events in Belarus, specifically, the protests and the numbers that they have attracted have caught me by surprise. Frankly, I did not expect the Belarus’ population to rise as it did. After all Aleksander Lukashenko, essentially a Russian surrogate has ruled Belarus for almost a quarter-century and there has been nothing democratic about his rule and almost nothing Belarusian.
On Aug. 17, I received a letter from Valentina in Minsk, Belarus:
“Yesterday I was in the thick of events, because the main opposition rally, however, it is correct to call it a protest rally, because it is simply outraged people who have reacted to another falsification (though no elections after 96 have been without falsification), and perhaps even more because of the brutal beating of thousands of detainees on Aug. 9-10. According to different estimates, only the by the Hero-City symbol there were from 200 to 300 thousand people. I think there were more because the day was hot and people were moving all the time. some went away, others came.
But, in spite of this, I am not too optimistic, because, on the one hand – everything is still going on the scenario of Maidan (a peaceful protest-the fight-the lack of reaction of the authorities to the excessive, I would even say – provocative – brutality), and on the other – from the very beginning there was no clear national orientation, there are no protest leaders. People just want fair elections (they are not even too worried that the only “admitted” candidates to the elections were those beneficial to the Lukashenko-Putin regime) and that there will be punishment for the sadistic security forces. That is all.
Optimism comes from the thing that distinguishes this protest from Maidan: strikes on enterprises-budget-fillers. Therefore, I believe that today is even more important than yesterday, because it is, in fact, the first post-protest working day and the fate of the protest largely depends on whether the strikes in the giant enterprises in the country will continue. Therefore, I wait with anticipation as to how Lukashenka will be met at these enterprises when he should arrive.”
Perhaps, there may be cause for optimism because Lukashenko was soundly decried by the protesters at the government enterprises on Aug. 17. In fact, many of the government media personnel walked off their jobs as well.
If left alone I feel that the people of Belarus would prevail. However, any optimism has to be cautious. There is an awful but very real variable – the Russian tank. The people of Belarus cannot confront that possibility. This is where the United States and Europe must act. I am reminded of Hungary in 1956 and of Czechoslovakia in 1968 and more recently of China in 1989. When evil happens and good people stand by and do nothing, not only are lives lost and spirits shattered, but the evil mongers become emboldened.
