Don’t look now, but Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine isn’t going how he expected.

While the Ukrainian army and its allied militias continue to skirmish with the Russian-backed separatists (and sometimes the Russian army itself) in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions—almost 100 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed so far this year according to a Ukraine’s defense ministry spokesman Andriy Petrenko—the larger contest is being decided in, of all places, Brussels.

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