Another trying 10 days or so of enforced isolation at home have passed by, exacerbated by the relentless bombardment of our strained sensitivities with news of the latest scandals and absurdities from the Ukrainian political scene.
As if the peril and demands posed by the advance of the silent coronavirus pandamonium and Russia’s incessant stoking of the fires of war in the Donbas are not enough, the latest developments in and around the corridors of power have only made things worse.
The president and the government want to reassure us that matters are under control on the coronavirus front and that there will be no capitulation in Minsk, but the same can hardly be claimed about the situation in the political sphere.
Let’s be frank. It’s been a disastrous fortnight which has accelerated the erosion of public confidence in the presidential administration and parliament and made even more of a mockery of the Ukrainian political system. It has further damaged the country’s image and credibility and threatened the workings of the vital life support system provided by international financial institutions to keep the Ukrainian economy breathing.
On March 30 the embarrassing marathon charade of parliamentarians saw the firing, rejecting, then acceptance of new ministers, and the dismissal of the proposed revised emergency state budget. Eventually, after the intervention of President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Verkhovna Rada, in which his own majority faction was far from united, voted for two key bills, the passage of which had become a precondition for Ukraine to receive a critical bailout from the International Monetary Fund.
Although many heaved a sigh of relief, in reality, the results were more akin to a Pyrrhic victory, and the final outcome is still far from certain. Yes, the so-called “banking” or “anti-Kolomoisky” bill named after the notorious billionaire oligarch, Ihor, who wants to recover Ukraine’s largest bank, PrivatBank, was adopted in its first reading. PrivatBank was nationalized in 2016 after Kolomoisky allegedly embezzled $5.5 billion from it. The bill’s purpose is to ensure that Kolomoisky and others who bankrupted banks won’t have them returned or receive compensation at the taxpayer’s expense.
But, this breakthrough has only precipitated an even fiercer battle waged by Kolomoisky’s diverse allies that have reached grotesque proportions this week to prevent, or at the very least to delay, the adoption of the bill on its second reading and its transformation into law.
The second involved the breaking of a psychological taboo inherited from the Soviet period, which had been fostered for self-serving political and business purposes by powerful forces with vested interests – the opening up of the country’s land market to privatization. A moratorium on this issue had been in place since 2001. After considerable heated discussion, the draft law was passed in its first reading back in November. It was introduced for its second reading on February 6.
Yulia Tymoshenko and representatives of the Opposition Platform – For Life faction headed the obstructionist response and resorted to classic filibustering methods. They introduced over 4,000 separate amendments insisting that each one be considered and voted on. When the law was finally adopted after midnight on March 31 it was barely recognizable from what had been initially proposed. It had its guts ripped out by the lawmakers. The signature of the law on land privatization by the Speaker of parliament is being blocked. Five bills have already been registered to scuttle the process.
The proceedings in the parliament highlighted the evolving realignment of political forces. Tymoshenko and her Fatherland party has implicitly allied herself with Kolomoisky’s supporters both within and outside of the president’s Servant of the People faction and positioned herself closer to the Opposition Platform – For Life. This emergent alliance made it clear that they would prefer to see Ukraine sink in the present conditions rather than meet the IMF’s conditions.
Former president Petro Poroshenko and his European Solidarity faction, as well as Viacheslav Vakarchuk’s Voice supported the two crucial bills arguing that if the country defaulted the consequences would be catastrophic. Some observers promptly suggested that Poroshenko used the opportunity to stave off threatened legal action connected with allegations of misconduct while president that have been leveled against him.
Further speculation was fueled by Poroshenko’s unexpected appearance together with Tymoshenko on the Savik Shuster political talk show on April 3 on the Ukraina TV channel owned by oligarch Rinat Akhmetov. Shuster had fallen out with Poroshenko in 2016 and had effectively been closed down by him and forced to leave the country. Now, he politely fed the former president friendly questions that allowed him to reiterate his support for Zelensky, his bitter political foe, in pushing for the two laws insisted on by the International Monetary Fund. Tymoshenko, who now claims that Ukraine is being reduced by the IMF to a compliant “banana republic,” proceeded to seize the mantle of the main opposition leader to Zelensky from Poroshenko’s shoulders.
If in the behind the scenes jockeying for influence among the country’s oligarchs, Kolomoisky can rely on Tymoshenko as his de facto advocate and the Opposition Platform – For Life as his ally, Zelensky appears to have moved closer to Akhmetov. The new prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, worked in the energy sector for Akhmetov and he has just appointed one of Akhmetov’s top managers, Ihor Maslov, as his advisor. It appears that in these difficult days, if there are no mistakes made concerning negotiations with Russia, Poroshenko can also be pacified.
Which brings us to the most toxic issue of the day – the scandal concerning the brother of Zelensky’s right-hand man, Andriy Yermak, Denys, who has been secretly filmed for many hours discussing access to positions of influence and lucrative jobs with interested candidates apparently ready to pay up.
Although the damage for a president who pledged zero tolerance for corruption and nepotism is potentially massive, his cagey response has been totally inadequate and in the circumstances improper. Instead of firing or temporarily removing Andriy Yermak while the contents and implications of the recordings are investigated, Andriy Yermak has instead chosen to have ludicrous charges leveled against the whistleblower lawmaker who published them.
What has happened to Zelensky the idealistic reformer who convinced three quarters of the voters that he would be different and that he would make Ukraine a different and better place?
Instead, as Ukrainians like to say with a hint of resignation and forced smile, it’s still a case of “We have what we have.” As we await the next extraordinary session of parliament later this week, we are already told that Kolomoisky’s supporters have managed in the space of barely a week, to submit over 16,000 amendments to delay the vote on the Banking Law. Just imagine, what efforts and resources were mobilized! In which country are such brazen displays of cynicism, irresponsibility, chicanery, and impunity tolerated, and at a time of war, medical emergency, and economic crisis?
In the 2008 film Blood Diamond, the character played by a young Leonardo DiCaprio explained dysfunctional and preposterous situations in some developing and war-torn African states with the acronym T.I.A. – This is Africa. Sadly, it seems we have reached the stage where we are forced to respond to the crazy things that we see keep happening in this country with a fatalistic T.I.U. – This is Ukraine.
