Independent Ukraine is celebrating its 29th birthday. Time again, for rejoicing, but also reflection and, after assessing progress made and lessons learned, preparation for what lies ahead.
At this stage, as we put on a brave face, and try to focus on the positive, we cannot afford smugness and need to see things as they really are.
Yes, there are certainly achievements and things to be proud of. In the face of major challenges, some of a potentially crippling or even deadly nature, Ukraine has held its own and is today, despite the numerous problems it still faces, some relatively new, and others of an enduring and systemic nature, probably stronger than ever in its history.
For 29 years the large diverse country has held together and despite the zig-zags has cherished democracy, or rather its flawed interpretation of it, and sovereignty. It has remained on its post-Soviet and post-colonial westward trajectory. Ukraine has shown again and again that it can change its leaders democratically and that there are limits to what its citizens will tolerate if their rights are violated or the country’s self-identification tampered with. Its people have shown heroism and determination in confronting external aggression.
On the other hand, there is much to be disappointed with, or even angry about. But first about the current unexpected context. Let’s face it, 2020 so far has not been the kindest of the years of freedom that Ukraine enjoyed. The coronavirus pandemic has hit the country out of nowhere creating unprecedented problems and anxiety.
Next door, Belarus has risen to rid itself of its seemingly irremovable dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, who has turned out to be even more ruthless and cynical than imagined.
As he fights back, unleashing his stormtroopers against his own population, his only recourse has been to appeal to his fellow dictator, Vladimir Putin, to save his skin.
Lukashenko has demonstrated contempt for official Kyiv, and the prospect of a Russian intervention, in whatever form, to prop him up is highly unsettling.
But on the other hand, Ukraine has again demonstrated for the umpteenth time where it stands – with democracy, Europe and its other partners near and far, and with the Belarusian people.
As we watch the wonder of the solidarity, self-organization, and order that has characterized the mass protests and strikes in Belarus, we cannot help but compare what has happened in Ukraine during the last three decades when Ukrainian have come out massively for change.
Although we do not know yet how the “white-red-white” revolution will end, we should be asking ourselves why the national resurgence three decades ago that helped topple the Soviet system, the Orange Revolution of 2004-05 and the EuroMaidan and the Revolution of Dignity of 2013-14, failed to produce the decisive breakthroughs awaited at that time.
What have these experiences taught us about Ukrainians as a people, their strengths, weaknesses, and flaws?
Ukrainians have managed to mobilize themselves in their desperate hours, against mismanagement by their rulers, and for six years to face up to armed Russian military aggression, but have failed to build a modern European state worthy of them.
After 29 years we still do not have an independent judiciary and the rule of law, credible law enforcement institutions, proper openness and accountability, and a genuine modern democratic political system. Political parties exist in name only and civil society is again weak and fragmented.
Instead, we have the semblance of these things, endemic corruption, and an entrenched oligarchic set up dominating not only economic but also political life and most of the media.
Economic miracles have not occurred and, plundered and mismanaged, Ukraine remains an embarrassingly poor, and in many respects under-developed country. Millions of it people have left in search of a better standard of living abroad.
At 29 individuals are considered fully grown up and mature. But in the case of Ukraine, infantilism still predominates in many areas. Let’s just mention political culture, susceptibility to populism, provincialism, greed, and selfishness, readiness to blame others, and to avoid the responsibilities citizens are expected to show.
The level of civic consciousness required for building an effective modern state is still lacking. The leadership required for the transformation has also been missing.
29 years later, Ukraine is certainly not a failed state. But it is a badly flawed one that has not lived up to expectations and its own potential. Although it has not changed the direction in which has been moving, it appears to have lost its way and to be somehow muddling through
Perhaps the unexpected revolution next door in Belarus will help Ukraine regain its bearings.
For by 30, greater maturity and responsibility will be expected and is definitely needed.
