All sorts of negotiations (between Kyiv and
unspecified representatives of embattled regions) are being suggested and
encouraged by both Moscow and the European Union. Many observers in Europe and
the United States see such negotiations as a convenient cover for a possible Munich-like
agreement between the West and Russia to “settle the Ukraine conflict” to the
satisfaction of big powers.
Such a settlement would not only enable but
impose the Donbas with its power structure to remain part of Ukraine — and, of course, to continue to be a major
lever in Kremlin’s geopolitical strategy to keep Ukraine in Russia’s sphere.
Inexplicably, in the Ukrainian camp the
emotional desire (judging from published exaltations) seems to be “not to lose
the Donbas” rather than not to lose Ukraine. Losing Ukraine, in the opinion of cooler
heads, would be the result of agreeing to Constitutional changes that, in
effect, would confirm the Ukrainian state as Russia’s rust-belt republic. The
Donbas would play the same key role as it had in electing Viktor Yanukovych as president.
Guess where this would leave “the heavenly
hundred” of the Euromaidan and the Ukrainian revolution of winter 2014. Capitulation of Ukrainian state is the word
that describes the price of keeping the Donbas. Think of fascination with the
Trojan horse.
What appears to be an unintended
prescription for Kyiv how to capitulate has appeared in an op-ed in the Kyiv
Post “How Kyiv can still keep the Donbas” (May 15). Here is how:
First, expect the government to pursue a
divide-and-conquer policy premised on divisions among (the Donbas) militants…”
So far so good, except no clue how to do it. Assume it is “duck soup”, as they
say.
Concurrently, “Kyiv should try to separate
the locals with legitimate grievances from the Russian agents and pro-Russian
extremists.” Good advice. Try to determine who is who with a show of hands?
And, “Kyiv is already committed to a
radical decentralization of authority…. But words matter. It’s imperative that
Kyiv frame the administrative reforms just as residents of the Donbas want them
to be called — federalization.” Better believe it.
Concerning the Russian language, under
existing law it can be the second state language in any province that demands
it. But hear this: “Ukraine’s genuine commitment to language equality would
entail that all state employees in all of Ukraine demonstrate fluency in both
Ukrainian and Russian.”
In conclusion, what appears to be an
assessment of a good job done so far, “The militants are isolated, Putin may be
in a pickle, and Kyiv has shown that it can conduct successful anti-terrorist
operations”.
If that’s the case, why capitulate to what
“the residents of Donbas” (and Mr. Putin) want? Hopefully, none of the advice
described in quoted op-ed will be taken seriously.
Ukrainians also need to rethink who is the
main danger to Ukraine. It is one thing to say that Ukraine has a diverse,
basically loyal population regardless of spoken language and culture, but it is
an entirely different picture when some regions are a powder keg of emotional
attachment to another country, transcending the generational acclimatization. Never mind the 30 percent polls that have
little to do with what really matters.
The strength of this attachment, seen in
the recent show of pro-Russian emotions and clearly subversive actions in
Donetsk and Luhansk regions, demonstrating loyalty to Russia that could not be
more explicit, cannot be explained away simply as a result of instigation from
Moscow.
These regions require no stimulation. What
they want as the price of staying within Ukraine’s state borders is something
that would remake Ukraine into even more “not normal” country than labeled by
no other than Russia’s president Vladimir Putin in his talks with US president
George W. Bush in Sochi in 2008.
Would Russia itself tolerate a similar insurrection
(“turmoil” in Kremlin’s vocabulary) within Russia that would threaten its
unity? It is not difficult to visualize Kremlin’s extreme nationalistic
response.
Ukrainians need to get real and drop any
illusions that Donbas can become something different from what it has been for
a long time.
Boris Danik is a retired Ukrainian-American living in North Caldwell, New Jersey.
