The need to pull out from most of Donbas. A good read on this subject is Alexander J. Motyl’s “The Russian army has huge problems” (interview with Rajan Manon), op-ed in the Kyiv Post, Jan. 13.
Ukraine must have the endurance and must develop war fighting capability to deny Russia its strategic objectives in Ukraine or an easy victory.
Concerning the first item, quoting from above interview, “The loss of these lands, which have been anti-reform bastions, is a blessing in disguise for Ukraine….. The country is now more homogeneous, that is a huge plus.”
I have consistently pointed out that population of most of Donbas is strongly attached to Soviet legacy, to its own Russian identity, and is essentially anti-Ukrainian. It has been destructive to Ukrainian state in the last 24 years.
In political terms, leaving Donbas is more easily said than done. Russia wants Donetsk and Luhansk regions to remain part of Ukraine and dominate or at least tie the hands of Ukraine’s government, as their elected politicians had been doing prior to the EuroMaidan revolution. No amount of effort can convert these actors to allegiance for the country. Plain and simple, these activists, militants and their mentors and supporters are Ukraine’s sworn enemies, many of them generationally estranged ethnic Ukrainians. Most of population is demonstrably pro-Russian.
It seems that President Petro Poroshenko fully understands this conundrum. Pulling back from Donbas can appear politically awkward, or worse, encourage Russia’s military proxies to press into adjacent regions. But this guessing becomes no longer current if Ukrainian troops are forced out of Donbas anyway, with more Russian troops and weapons crossing the border.
As for the second item listed above — Ukraine’s endurance to wage an extended war and deny Russia an easy victory — it is a condition “sine qua non” to thwart Russia’s imperialistic objectives. Here they are, as reiterated in Josh Cohen’s “Where is Russia’s policy going in 2015?” (Moscow Times, Jan. 15):
”Á new decentralized political structure for Ukraine,….a special form of federalization that would provide its eastern regions to establish their own political or economic arrangements, as special trade arrangements between Russia and eastern Ukraine, including in the defense industry… Commitment from Ukraine to avoid NATO membership,… Protection of the Russian language in Ukraine and of traditional cultural ties between Ukraine and Russia…. Donetsk and Luhansk should remain parts of Ukraine as a guarantee of non-entry into NATO”.
Notice that while “protection of Russian language” is a charade, “traditional cultural ties” is something else: it is a euphemism for Russia’s hegemony over Ukraine in all its aspects. Cultural ties with Russia in any sense have not been popular in Ukraine lately, except in Donbas.
To fight in the Russian-made war Ukraine needs substantial help from the West, including some weapons. The difficulties the Unites States is having in the Mideast lately doesn’t make it easier for President Obama to focus on Ukraine. Remarkably, some voices in Europe are still lambasting the US president for not sending someone highly prominent to the mass demonstration in Paris in solidarity with Charlie Hebdo victims that were killed in Paris by Islamist terrorist gunmen. The demonstration, in hundreds of thousands, was attended by many heads of state, including Ukraine’s president.
On the other hand, the Paris murders energized both the European commitment to free speech and the celebration in the ISIS and El Qaeda ranks, the latter showing a hyped-up Moslem hostility toward the West. This also means a stronger animosity towards the Mideast coalition stitched together by the US to reign in the ISIS menace in Iraq and Syria. The massacre in Paris is not helping that coalition.
Apparently the murder in Paris of 12 people, including Charlie Hebdo editors, was in retaliation to obscene caricatures of Prophet Mohammed, which were rather unsightly. According to some, Charlie cartoonists were “rapier sharp, merciless, and looking for controversy and notoriety”. While nothing justifies the savagery in Paris, the praise of the Charlie kind of free speech is not unanimous.
Pope Francis simply said “There are limits to free speech. If someone is insulting your mother with foul language he can expect a punch”. Others could ask “Is bullying OK?” Ah, that would be about kids. But at what age the adolescents become adults? Maybe meanness can last a very long time.
Targeting prophets and gods could be heroic in Europe in the Middle Ages, but nowadays it is frivolous at best. Is vulgar religious intolerance compatible with the freedom of speech? Some writers demand to show “solidarity” that would not merely condemn the attacks on cartoonists but would also celebrate the cartoons.
Writes Oksana Grytsenko about 13 people killed by pro-Russian militants rocket-propelled strike on a minibus in Volnavakha in Donbas on Jan. 13 (“No peace: Separatists kill 12 on minibus,” Kyiv Post, Jan. 16): The tragedy provoked outrage across Ukraine, and the slogan ‘Je souis Volnavakha’ went viral.
One way to interpret this imitated slogan is as a hint at French self-centered perception of terrorism and Europe’s remarkable public indifference for the thousands killed in the east of Ukraine in terrorist Russian-sponsored war. In fact, there are more louder voices in Europe for making amends with Russia and get Moscow’s help in dealing with Muslim terrorists and Iran — a highly naïve expectation. But that’s where they are. French President Francois Hollande himself has been hand-wringing about the need to remove economic sanctions on Russia as soon as….. (not very clear), in contrast to unequivocal words of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and US President Barack Obama, affirming the sanctions as long as Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is continuing.
Words are important, but Ukraine’s own firmness and endurance as a country are more indicative of what 2015 will be like.
Boris Danik is a retired Ukrainian-American living in North Caldwell, New Jersey.
