Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko must feel like a cross between a cornered animal and ex-President Victor Yushchenko, the Orange Revolution hero who squandered his mandate so badly that he got eliminated for re-election in the first round of the 2010 presidential vote.
While Poroshenko stayed alive on March 31 to fight another day, his first-round vote total of 16 percent was hardly inspiring. Translated the most obvious way, 84 percent of people who voted want someone else as president – and that someone looks most likely to be comic actor and political satirist Volodymyr Zelenskiy, barring a quick and stunning comeback in the next 20 days.
That’s got to hurt. From Poroshenko’s point of view, he’s the victim of a relentless Russian-backed smear campaign. He considers the media treatment of him as unfair. He may even consider Ukrainians as ungrateful for the considerable achievements during his five years in office: He led the nation’s defense against Russia’s war, he secured visa-free travel for Ukrainians, he signed an historic economic agreement with the European Union, he won canonical independence of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and more.
Most Ukrainian voters, however, see it differently. They see him as someone who squandered the clear mantle of leadership handed to him with a resounding 54 percent of the vote in 2014, securing a first-round knockout victory over ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, whose third presidential bid ended in failure on March 31. Voters say they see him as no better than all the other scheming oligarchs who have monopolized the nation’s economy, politics and media.
But there’s still time to recover before the April 21 vote. Cornered animals, after all, are the most dangerous – and can be the most effective fighters. With his political survival on the line, Poroshenko is going to do everything in his powers to win re-election.
Here are five possible ways:
- Clean house
Start by firing the two top prosecutors – Yuriy Lutsenko and Nazar Kholodnytsky – and name two credible ones in their place. They can open a major crimes unit of untouchable prosecutors and criminal investigators focusing only on multimillion-dollar thefts, including bank fraud that cost the nation’s taxpayers $20 billion. Invite foreign experts – maybe even U.S. special counsel Robert Mueller – to help lead the team of top-notch investigators.
Re-boot court reform to get rid of questionable judges. Agree to the dismantling of the Security Service of Ukraine’s excessive powers. Put Interior Minister Arsen Avakov on notice to clean house or get out. End the monopolies in the energy sector of oligarchs Rinat Akhmetov and Dmytro Firtash.
Back legislation for a strong public broadcaster and redistribute broadcast licenses to break up the oligarchic stranglehold on the media. Get rid of the cancerous Russian ownership of businesses in key sectors of the economy. Don’t wait for the audit of Ukroboronprom. Impose transparency in defense spending while protecting legitimate national secrets. It can be done. Really commit to selling all your businesses this time. This list can go on and on, but speed, substance and drama are of the essence.
- Reach out to critics
Poroshenko’s concession speech, in which he expressed humility and said he understood why so many voters are disappointed in his record, is a start. Businesses continue to be strong-armed by law enforcement agencies. This is damaging to the investment climate. Many of the 37 politicians defeated to get into the runoff election have talents and skills. Use them. Make Tymoshenko an offer she can’t refuse, likewise for ex-Defense Minister Anatoliy Hrytsenko and ex-Security Service of Ukraine head Ihor Smeshko. Start doing real news interviews, with independent journalists and not just loyalists. Put the investigations into the murders of journalists Pavel Sheremet in 2016 and Georgiy Gongadze in 2000 back on the front burner. He should become the person he was before the presidency: Approachable, friendly and forthcoming.
- Hammer Zelenskiy’s inexperience, Kolomoisky ties
Poroshenko has great oratorical skills. He can speak for hours on nuanced and complicated policy questions in at least three languages. He should challenge Zelenskiy to as many debates as possible on all topics – foreign policy, domestic policy, and personal qualifications. With his history of avoiding debates and confrontational interviews with journalists, Poroshenko now needs to reverse course. He needs to be seen and shown side by side with Zelenskiy, as often as possible; he needs to be seen as answering all the hard questions. Zelenskiy seems only to be able to issue vague policy statements about supporting the pro-Western course in foreign policy and fighting corruption at home. This is not enough for voters to go on. Zelenskiy’s blank-slate approach gives hope to both patriotic Ukrainian liberals and Kremlin thugs alike.
And if Zelenskiy is truly billionaire oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky’s puppet, show the evidence — along with evidence of Kolomoisky’s alleged bank fraud costing taxpayers $5.6 billion to take over PrivatBank.
- Suppress turnout
Low voter turnout can benefit Poroshenko, political analysts say. Zelenskiy’s first-round victory happened because many young people, who aren’t the most disciplined voters, actually came and voted. Also, although Zelenskiy won 20 out of 24 oblasts, his support is stronger in the east than the west. If Poroshenko could find a way to distract or demoralize either young voters or the voters in eastern Ukraine, he would hurt Zelenskiy’s chances in the runoff. It’s not illegal, but it is unethical and undemocratic, so we’ll see what the campaign does if push comes to shove.
- Extreme methods
Presidents who want to hold on to their jobs have been known to dig deep into the “kompromat” files of compromising information against enemies at times like these, bribe voters, stack election commissions, change vote totals and so on. But those extreme methods would be illegal and wrong. They also might trigger the third revolution in as many decades.
This final round will be rough enough without anything illegal.
So my advice to Poroshenko: Play it nice. Conduct a hard-fought, but clean campaign. You’ve done some great things in the last five years. Perhaps everybody’s expectations were just too high and unrealistic after the EuroMaidan Revolution that ousted your predecessor, Viktor Yanukovych. But remember that life goes on, with or without you as president of Ukraine. You’ll still be rich, you’ll still be influential – even in defeat. Zelenskiy is just joking about putting you in jail. Nobody with power goes to jail in this country.
And who knows, the nice-guy approach might even help you pull off what is now considered to be a long-shot victory over your inexperienced opponent?
And if not, you’re plenty young enough to stage a political comeback.
Remember that Russia is right next door. So the extent to which all politicians – led by you — can remain civilized and united behind national goals, the safer we’ll all sleep at night.
