Obama is right when, during an April 27 press conference in Malaysia, he said that Europe is the most affected by Russia’s war against Ukraine and that sanctions against the Kremlin will be most effective if the European Union joins with America. Trade between the European Union and Russia amounted to almost $370 billion in 2012, The New York Times estimated, while United States trade with Russia was about $26 billion that year.
But he is wrong in saying that the United States should not “go forward with sectoral sanctions on our own without the Europeans.” In my view, if strong leadership comes from the United States, it will make it easier for Europe to follow.
Regrettably, that leadership is not coming from Obama. As today’s news reports suggest, the West’s sanctions against Russia next week will be a little more of the same — expanding the list of individuals on the blacklist. It’s not enough at this stage in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
The truth is that Europe is not likely to take a strong stance unless America does.
The US should lead European allies with punishing sanctions that cripple Russia’s banking sector and also put in place collateral, unilateral sanctions on European governments — or any others, including Ukraine’s — that do not abide by the tougher measures.
International investigations into money laundering and tax evasion should be stepped up.
Sanctions against Russia’s energy sector will have to be longer in coming from the consumer side, because of the obvious energy needs of Europe. But even in this area, the United States and Europe can do everything in their power to develop energy alternatives and disengage Western governments and companies from the South Stream and other energy projects under way designed by Russia to strangle Ukraine economically.
Most importantly, the American and European governments can enact Iran-style sanctions by legally forcing multinational energy giants such as Exxon and BP to disengage from the Russian market. Besides oil and gas, the world needs nothing that Russia’s 143 million people produce. Russia’s economy accounts for only 2.9 percent of the world’s gross domestic product.
Whether or not Russia’s dictator, Vladimir Putin, is trying to start World War III — as Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk warns — his regime is an outlaw regime but is still not being treated as such.
Corporations have shown throughout the crisis that profits, not morality, drive their decisions. So leadership is not going to come from the private sector.
“Neither in energy terms, nor politically, should we turn away from Russia,” said Rainer Seele, the chairman of Wintershall, a subsidiary of the large German-based chemical company BASF that is deeply entwined in Russia’s oil and natural gas trade, according to The New York Times story “European firms seek to minimize Russia sanctions.”
The fact that the Kremlin-backed separatist leader in Sloviansk, Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, is holding Western observers hostage and parading them around in public is the latest evidence that Putin is behind the kidnappings. The Kremlin could get them released if Moscow leaders wanted them free.
The violence and kidnapping are part of a long line of Putin lies that started with the Crimean invasion and his initial claim that Russia did not have anything to do with it.
Ukraine’s police and military are in dismal shape, but that shouldn’t stop the West from giving the Ukrainian military small arms and anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, as U.S. Senator John McCain (Republican-Arizona) has pushed for, as well as other military training.
Much of the Western aid — estimated to total $37 billion over two years when all the commitments are counted from governments and international institutions, according to Obama aide Tony Blinken — is in the form of loans. This is probably the most that can be expected, but this time the West should insist on accountability. Ukrainians will have to pay back these loans, so they need to have Western help in making sure the assistance is well-spent.
America and the EU can move quickly also to lift visa requirements for Ukrainians, at least for short-term stays, as long as biometric passports and other security measures are in place. All polls show that Ukrainians want to live in a united, sovereign nation and most want it to be a democratic one. Visa-free travel will encourage an open society that is integrated with the West.
Putin’s words cannot be trusted, and his actions are those of an international criminal who is bent on reassembling the Soviet Union. Stopping him should be a top priority for the rest of the world. This is an opportunity to put an end to Putinism. But the United States will have to lead the way. Diplomatic ties are still essential, given Russia’s nuclear weaponry, but business, trade and military ties are only helping to keep in place a kleptocratic, violent regime.
Kyiv Post chief editor Brian Bonner can be reached at [email protected]
