Historically, Ukraine has seen very hard times. Millions of its people have died as a result of directives given by ruthless dictators, either by the sword or by starvation. Nevertheless, the Ukraine people have persisted in their efforts to survive and some have even thrived. The Ukraine spirit did not die.
Ukraine became a free, independent country in 1990 after the Soviet Union was dismantled. Unfortunately, the soviet form of governance continued to hold the country back. Economic trade was primarily with Russia and other eastern block countries, all of which had similar forms of governance. This lead to a continuation of corruption and economic stagnation. The general populace remained in relative poverty, while a few oligarchs and politicians thrived.
With the advent of the internet, students and other educated people obtained a better vision of what life could be like, and they yearned to bring that kind of life to Ukraine. Their desire for change grew and they resolved to take action. In 2004, the Orange revolution resulted in the election of President Viktor Yushchenko over Viktor Yanukovych, the Russian-supported candidate. Although the Ukraine constitution was amended to make it more democratic, the strong influence of Yanukovych and the Party of Regions prevented any serious reform in the government. In the 2010 presidential election, Victor Yanukovych was declared the winner and he dismantled as many of the orange revolution reforms as he could. It became obvious to those who wanted reform that a stronger effort would have to be taken to bring about the changes they desired. The opportunity was seized in February 2014, when Yanukovych was ousted from power after refusing to sign an agreement to affiliate Ukraine with the European Union.
After the EuroMaidan Revolution, steps were taken to form a new interim government, to restore the previous constitution and to hold an impromptu presidential election. A free and fair election for a new president was held in May, and Petro Poroshenko was elected the new president of Ukraine. A new reformist parliament was later elected. Poroshenko ran on a reformist platform to end corruption and create a European style government. At the same time, he inherited a Russian instigated rebellion in the east oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Russian President Vladimir Putin did not want to see Ukraine turn to the west. By winning control of the east, which had a large number of sympathetic Russian speaking people, Putin thought he could cause the creation of an autonomous region which would have a voice in any decision about joining the European Union or NATO. He had already seized control of Crimea without resistance, so he did not expect a significant problem in forcing his will on eastern Ukraine.
Putin, however, did not understand the strength of the new nationalism in Ukraine. The ease by which he seized Crimea fooled him. The Ukraine people and government resisted his efforts with a ferocity he did not expect. As ill equipped and disorganized as the Ukraine military was, it fought back. Many brave but poorly trained Ukraine soldiers lost their lives or limbs. Because of corruption and incompetency in the military, several volunteer military groups were formed to assist the government’s military efforts. There were many setbacks, but the Ukraine military forces grew from their mistakes and from assistance given by western countries. Today, Ukraine’s military is much better than it was at the beginning of the war and has withstood the onslaught of several thousand Russian trained, organized and equipped fighters.
Many of those who fought in the Maidan and those who have a nationalistic fervor do not want to give up an inch of Ukraine soil to the control of Russia. They strongly desire that their government take back the territory that has been seized by the Russian backed separatists. They are unwilling to compromise, and some have even threatened to remove President Poroshenko from office if he should agree to a loss of any portion of the Donbas. This nationalistic fervor has placed Poroshenko in a very difficult position. He realizes, as do most all western countries, that Putin will take whatever steps that are necessary to control the Donbas. He wants to disrupt Ukraine so that it will not become economically viable and will not become a member of the EU. This position is important to him not just personally, but also politically. In spite of sanctions and economic adversity in Russia, the Russian people are still overwhelmingly supportive of Putin. He knows that he will lose some or most of that popularity if he does not continue to support the separatists and ensure an acceptable outcome in the war with Ukraine. As a result, Putin will not simply back down.
As a result of the war, nearly 5,000 Ukrainians, including civilians and soldiers, have lost their lives, and many thousands more have been wounded. Several hundred thousand civilians have been displaced from their homes. Many billions of dollars of damage has been done to buildings and infrastructure. If the war continues, many more will die and be wounded. In addition, Ukraine’s economy will remain on life support as at least $6,000,000.00 per day are spent to support the war, and foreign investors shy away from the uncertainty of Ukraine. Even if there were no war, Ukraine’s economy would struggle because of entrenched corruption in government and society which will not soon be eradicated. Economic progress would be slow even in the best of times and is practically non-existent under the present circumstances.
It has been stated that politics is the art of compromise. Competing factions attempt to gain as much advantage as they can until a compromise solution is reached. This is, for example, the way all western governments operate. This is the way countries operate with one another. Many idealistic Ukrainians, however, do not understand this fact because of their lack of experience in actual governance, Their expectations of the Ukraine government with regard to a solution of the war in the Donbas are not realistic, but their power and zeal are so strong that Poroshenko is unable to make the best decisions for the welfare of Ukraine. He feels obligated to fight for every inch of Ukraine territory even though he knows he will not succeed.
On Jan. 29, Poroshenko was criticized for allegedly agreeing to a demarcation line under the Minsk accords which is different from the one previously made public. It would have given the Donetsk airport to the separatists in exchange for other territory. On Jan. 15, Putin proposed to Poroshenko a different demarcation line which would have slightly extended the rebel held territory in the southeast, making it more of a straight line. At first, Poroshenko ignored Putin’s proposal and later summarily rejected it. When one considers the alternative of ongoing war, such negotiations would have been positive if they would have led to an overall peace in the region. For example, an agreed demarcation line could lead to a portion of the Donbas becoming an independent country or being annexed into Russia (although Russia would prefer that it remain part of Ukraine for political purposes.) Even if a part of the Donbas were split off from Ukraine, it would not prevent continued commerce between it and Ukraine. A boundary is simply a boundary. People and commerce can pass over it just like with surrounding countries. Such divisions have effectively taken place in former Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. Any negotiated settlement would, of course, need the approval of parliament in order to be made permanent. Until the Ukrainian people set aside their emotions, recognize the necessity of compromise, and give Poroshenko the freedom to reach the best compromise he can with Putin, it seems highly unlikely that they will see their dreams come true and that Ukraine will develop into a strong and prosperous nation. A defiant and determined Russia is simply too strong and has too many resources to allow that to happen.
Charles Evans is an attorney in the American state of Montana who has made four visits to Ukraine, including three in 2014.
