It would include self-governance in the eastern Donbas territory controlled by Russian-backed separatists (in an area larger than previously agreed), an immediate cease-fire, a pull back of artillery from the agreed demarcation line, an eventual removal of all Russian troops and military equipment from the east, and an amendment to the constitution allowing for the special autonomy and self governance of the area.
French President Francois Hollande hinted that the agreement would also address Putin’s concern about Ukraine joining NATO. One way of addressing the NATO concern would be an amendment to the Ukraine constitution stating that there would have to be a unanimous vote of all oblasts before Ukraine could apply to joint NATO, but that may not be enough to satisfy Putin.
There may be other terms that would make such an agreement palatable to Putin such as trade agreements and dropping sanctions. It is also being stated that the possibility of the United States arming the Ukraine military would put pressure on Putin to accept the proposal, although it may have the opposite effect.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said she wants a comprehensive peace plan, so I assume that is what she is striving for. Assuming Putin were to eventually agree with the terms of such an agreement, I see problems in it being acceptable to the separatists and the Ukraine people.
The separatist leaders have already taken the position that they would not allow the area under their control to become controlled by the Kiev government. They have stated that too much blood has been spilled and too much resentment has been created to allow that to happen. Their goal appears to be that the area become, at the very least, an independent state (republic) such as South Ossetia in Georgia.
That is probably what Putin would also prefer, so he may not place much pressure on the separatists to abide by the agreement. The separatists may agree to a cease fire with enough pressure from Putin, but I don’t see them going beyond that unless there are terms for implementing an independent state. It seems as if one of the reasons for the continued fighting has been to acquire enough territory so that they could function as a viable independent state.
In addition, it seems unlikely that enough Ukraine leaders and members of parliament would accept such an outcome. Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has deep distrust for Putin and has recently expressed skepticism about the proposal. Members of parliament and others involved in the EuroMaidan Revolution have stated that they do not want to give power and control of the Donbas to the terrorists against whom they have been fighting. My guess is that a large portion of the Ukraine people are quite nationalistic and feel the same way. They may think they can contain or defeat the terrorists with military help from the Untied States and other western countries.
Winston Churchill once said that democracy is the worst form of governmental except for all the others. I am not sure that Ukraine has had enough experience with democracy to fully appreciate the present complicated situation and make the wisest political decision. The nationalistic sentiment of many Ukraine leaders and its people may be too strong for that. They may wish to press on with the war, expecting that they can regain control of the east, something I don’t see happening. It would be a tremendous achievement by Poroshenko if he were able to persuade the country to accept the proposed agreement if Putin signs off on it. It would also be a great blessing to Ukraine and its people if such an agreement were adopted and implemented, but several obstacles would have to be first overcome.
