In the bloodiest day
so far in the Ukraine crisis, pro-Russian separatists have shot down an
Ilyushin Il-76 machine during its descent flight to Lugansk Airport,
transporting military service personnel. Reportedly there were no survivors.
While leaders around the world offer their condolence, the calls for decisive
economic sanctions and greater military presence gain momentum with all eyes on
Germany – the political and economic hub of Europe.
The questions lingering
now is if Germany is ready, able and even willing to enforce these measures and
live up to the international expectations. How far is German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the
Bundestag and the German business lobby prepared to go?
The Ukraine crisis has
evolved into the greatest litmus test for post-World War II Germany’s commitment to
democracy.
In an event series
organized last week by members of the Bundestag “Talking Seriously – What to do
in the matter of Ukraine?” invited guest speaker Ukrainian Ambassador to
Germany Pavlo Klimkin highlighted at a public podium discussion in Dresden the
improved relationship between Ukraine and Germany over the last two years.
Remembering
the distant and cool foreign relations during the 2012 European Championship in
which Chancellor Angela Merkel and German President Joachim Gauck heavily
criticized Ukraine on selective Justice, police brutality and corruption,
Klimkin now points to the close bilateral ties developed since then.
Klimkin, which met the
day before with Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk in Berlin,
reiterated the need for political dialogue among Ukraine’s western and eastern
neighboring countries, as well as the importance of initiating a national
dialogue.
“A round, square or triangle table … whatever is needed to start and
continue a national dialogue among east and west Ukrainians, however we will
not talk to armed terrorist which keep eastern Ukrainians as hostages,” he
reminded, justifying the current anti-terrorist operation in the Lugansk and
Donetsk oblasts. However, the cleavage between the commitments of the German
government and the view of the German public differ widely in regards to
Ukraine.
The current coalition
government of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats strongly supports
Ukraine’s territorial integrity and its European aspirations.
Merkel,
having grown up in the former socialist East Germany, found clear words last
week in the Bundestag when she threatened Russia with new sanctions if it did
not constructively contribute to de-escalating the crisis through effectively
monitoring its borders with Ukraine.
The German government
is keen to pledge further financial, political and material aid, but is careful
when it comes to punitive measures such as sanctions or military aid as it is
currently facing a dilemma the German public.
The German public remains divided over the extent of German involvement.
Some view Ukraine as not ready for Europe. Some argue that Ukraine has
traditionally been part of the Soviet-Russian sphere of influence anyways and
for some Ukraine is just too far away from Europe. Others view German-Russian
business ties as too important to be strained by further involvement in the
Ukraine crisis. A large section of the population merely have pro-Russian
sentiments due to the recent NSA scandal, which tore a large rift between the
transatlantic partnership and sowed a deep mistrust towards the American government.
This dilemma is
confirmed by current German public opinion polls which show 69 percent of Germans
support economic and financial aid to Ukraine.
However, only a slight majority
of 51 percent welcomed tougher sanctions such as visa bans and freezing assets
of Russian politicians. A mere 7 percent say they would support military
action.
This trend can be traced back to several internal and external factors
shaping German foreign policy. One is the pacifist dogma of non-intervention
prevalent in foreign policy and the other one is the pre-dominance of economic
interests over political ones.
Germany, bearing in mind the historic context, traditionally supports a
pacifist foreign policy dogma and as former Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle
labeled it, endorses a culture of military restraint, also known as soft
power. The abstention of vote in the Security Council on the Libya Resolution
2011, the continual refusal to pledge military support to NATO missions and the
inaction during the Mali crisis are all part of adhering to the historical credo
called “nie wieder Krieg” (never again war). This dogma strictly forbids the
use of force regardless of the situation. For example Karl-Theodor Guttenberg,
former defense minister, broke a big taboo in Germany when he labelled the
conflict in Afghanistan as a ‘war’ – 9 years after the German involvement in
Afghanistan. His predecessors preferred to name the conflict as a
‘stabilization mission’ in ‘war-like’ conditions.
However, German foreign
policy increasingly faces a dilemma, as the current Ukraine crisis reveals.
Joschka Fischer underlines this dilemma when he said “Never again war” but also
“Never again Auschwitz” underlining the non-possibility of excluding force as a
means of retaining peace. This is reflected in the Ukraine crisis, as Germany
currently pursues a strategy of “maximum-minimum” engagement. Financial aid,
diplomatic engagement, sending election monitors, promising economic
association are all employed in order to resolve this crisis, while the slightest
military engagement is ruled out to begin with – a policy of maximum
involvement with minimum possible political damage to Germany. The Crimea
crisis proved to be a shining example of how ‘dialogue’ without possible
punitive measures remains utterly futile.
As the largest economy
in Europe, the fourth largest exporting country in the world and as the world’s
third largest arms exporter however it is slowly outgrowing its current
marginal role on the stage of world politics. An indicator for this are today’s
remarks by Federal President Joachim Gauck who demanded that Germany finally
takes on greater international responsibility. “Germany is now a democratic
state with freedom, rights and rule of law” he remarked “…therefore it is vital
that we support other states in their plight for human rights and this does
sometimes require that we do not rule out some sort of military engagement.”
A few months ago it was revealed
that Vladimir Putin decided to permanently station SS-26 Iskander rocket
launchers, able to carry nuclear warheads in Russia’s western military
district, also including Kaliningrad – a Russian exclave placed inside the
European heartland. End of April Russian Tu-95MS bombers, able to carry nuclear
weapons, flew exercises in the North-See exercising bombing techniques, while
at the same time the German public still debates whether to become involved
into a conflict that has already drawn the entire European continent and
western democracies into a struggle for those fundamental rights and values
that the European Union is built upon.
The second inhibiting factor to greater German involvement is the
pre-dominance of economic interests over political ones.
Some 60 percent fear the
effects on the German economy from sanctions or retaliatory measures by Russia.
Andreas Schockenhoff, coordinator of the cooperation of the German-Russian civil
society and vice chairman of the Christian Democratic parliamentary group on
Foreign Affairs, justified the economic sanctions during a three-hour question-and-answer round in front of East German company representatives, who
criticized the effects on their businesses.
Rolf Heinemann, general manager
of Robotron, condemned the sanctions endorsed by the German government and the
European Union, as especially East German companies have strong economic ties
to East-Europe and Russia and are thus feeling the effects on the restriction
of trade. In a recent opinion poll more than two-thirds admitted that they
feared delays in gas deliveries such as in 2006 and 2009 and the possible
affects to the German economy.
Schockenhoff clearly warned at
the conference from a return to cold war power politics marked by a zero-sum
game and hegemonic territorial ambitions.
“Russia is hurting even more its own
economic interests” he remarked. Schockenhoff reminded that during the first
half of the year, the capital flight from Russia reached $55.5 Billion,
prompting a credit rating downgrade from agencies and thus plunging Russia
into a recession, while the German stock exchange only recently reached an all-time
high of 10,000 points.
Furthermore German companies, contrary to the public
opinion, are ready and willing to carry the consequences of the third stage of
sanctions, as Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chamber of Commerce underlined.
“Sanctions are political measures and they are decided politically. The German
economy will support these.” Opposite to reports of the Russian media, the German
business lobby will not vehemently block the decisions of the Bundestag.
Drawing parallels to the Marshall Plan, in which the United States pledged $13 billion in economic support to
post-World War II Europe, Schockenhoff clearly supported Ukraine’s European
aspirations as he reminded: “Our prosperity stems from the stability and peace
of our neighbors.”
The United States and other international partner’s ensured
democracy and human rights prospered in Germany at the expense of their
economic growth, now Germany has to take the lead to defend the values of
toleration, social prosperity and democracy, Schockenhoff reminded the
listeners.
The current German mood clearly
reflects the internal struggle to sanction a former close partner, a “flawless
democracy” as Russia was once labelled by Gazprom employee and former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and potentially pay
the price for enforcing democratic values at the expense of economic growth.
It
is quite shameful, for a former German chancellor to be part of this elite club
which does not support any democratic values Germany stands for, underlying the
highly controversial role Schroeder has at Gazprom Russia.
While the estimated
costs of third-tier sanctions round are expected to stunt economic growth in
Germany, the effects on the other hand on the Russian economy would be much
more devastating – $100 Million per day would be missing from the State Budget.
Rebutting the claims by some
commentators that Europe and the NATO is partially to blame for isolating
Russia – attempts by some to politically justify Putin’s annexation of Crimea,
Schockenhoff clearly reminded that denying membership to the EU or the NATO to
former Soviet countries is to deny the right of self-determination of these
countries, something of which Russia has been accused of numerous times.
“We do have an interest in
working together with Russia on a long-term basis,” Schockenhoff clarified. “However there is currently no more trust,” pointing to the statement in Geneva
of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov which clearly denied Russian
involvement in Crimea, while at the same time Russian President Vladimir Putin
honored Russian Elite Troops in Moscow for securing strategic important
infrastructure in Crimea. The German public strongly reflects this distrust, as
over 80 per cent stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot be trusted
as a politician.
The German leniency towards
Russian territorial ambitions however especially enrage its neighbor Poland and
its leader Donald Tusk, which on numerous occasions has reminded Merkel of her
duty to ensure the security of the Eastern European countries, 75 years after
Germany and Russia divided the country
in half. Tusk demands a stronger German military commitment in the Eastern
European countries. 25 years of independence, 15 years membership in the NATO
and 10 years of EU membership ensured security and stability, Donald Tusk has said,
pushing his country towards greater European and NATO integration. Important to
note is that Poland’s economy is with 60% gas imports, even more dependent on
Russian gas than Germany and has strong economic ties to Russia just as Germany
and thus stands to lose as much as the German economy in case of further
escalation in the Ukraine crisis.
Markus Kerber, general manager of
the Federation of German Industry – the chief lobby association of German
industry – released a statement today stating that it would be desirable to
resolve the Ukraine crisis through diplomatic channels, however the German
industry will fully support and carry the costs of further sanctions if Russia
did not contribute to de-escalating the conflict. “There should be no
questioning, the German industry views Russia’s actions as completely
illegitimate. The values of peace and freedom stand over any economic gains.”
It now remains to be seen whether
the German public will catch up to the argumentation and reasoning of both
political and economic forces in the country.
Following today’s shootdown of the Ilyushin Il-76, not with mere conventional
weapons but state-of-the art surface to air rocket launchers, the third round
of sanctions seems to be drawing closer as there appears to be no cooling off
of the conflict in sight. The litmus test for the German Bundestag and the
German economy is yet to come.
The American,
Russian, Ukrainian and Polish governments are all looking to Merkel in
her important role as a mediator between both sides. No other leader has had
the number of personal conversations with both Putin and Poroshenko at a time.
At the same time however she also remains a representative of the interests of
the German people, which currently are still divided. It remains to be seen
whether the German public can overcome its “Angst” and the moral dilemma of
striving for a purely pacifist foreign policy through avoiding war.
A politician once said that
Germany is a Goliath living in the shadows of its past, afraid of its own
strengths. It is now slowly and reluctantly accepting its greater role in world
politics, as its politicians and businesses realize that democracy and freedom
are not self-evident, but virtues which have to be defended every day.
Chris Berger is a freelance journalist living in Germany.
