Like me, you are likely wondering; Who is next?
What could trigger more disconent both in Ukraine and more importantly, from a geopolitical and strategic perspective, in Russia? The same early warning signals that existed in 1989-90 before the collapse of the Soviet Union are evident today. According to Yegor Gaidar, who was the acting prime minister of Russia, between 1991 and 1994, the Soviet Union collapsed because it went broke.
In his book, Gaidar writes: "The timeline of the collapse of the Soviet Union can be traced to September 13, 1985. On this date, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, the minister of oil of Saudi Arabia, declared that the monarchy had decided to alter its oil policy radically. The Saudis stopped protecting oil prices, and Saudi Arabia quickly regained its share in the world market. During the next six months, oil production in Saudi Arabia increased fourfold, while oil prices collapsed by approximately the same amount in real terms. As a result, the Soviet Union lost approximately $20 billion per year, money without which the country simply could not survive. (see http://bit.ly/gDR578 )
To my great surprise and amazement, my blog post on the 40 early warning signals that could lead to the collapse of Putinism and the Viktor Yanukovych regime has gone viral on the Internet, after being translated into Russian and reprinted in a pro-democracy Russian newspaper.
If you Google the phrase: “Канадский политолог назвал 40 признаков распада России”, you’ll find over 33,400 distinct hits. Is that enough to cause a revolution? Well, I don’t know. Conditions and circumstances are different in each country. In Egypt, it was triggered by the death of a businessman who set himself on fire, and only 100,000 people on Facebook, who rallied on the first day of the uprising.
In Ukraine, demonstrators are poised to hit the streets in late February and in the spring, according to Democracy Watch. After all, Ukrainians are a pragmatic lot. Who wants to miss the New Year and Christmas celebrations and go demonstrate in the dead of winter, without any logistic and backup support (transportation, tents, food, warmth, water and even Orange Revolution symbolism on coffee mugs, shirts, scarves etc. to maintain morale and to collect extra funds). What we saw during the Orange Revolution took years to plan and finance.
Have you noticed the key, big difference between Egypt’s uprising and the Orange Revolution?
Almost unanimously and as if on cue, all Western newspapers started calling for the repatriation of Hosni Mubarak’s family assets in Swiss banks and in other countries, estimated between several billion dollars right up to $70 billion, which would make him the richest crook on the planet.
However, not a single peep was heard from anyone in either the Yushchenko government or the West or Ukrainians in the diaspora, demanding investigations by Interpol or Transparency International into off-shoring of assets and money laundering from corrupt Ukrainian politicians and oligarchs. Instead of focusing almost exclusively on “feel good” human rights issues, which are important but not game-changing, some diaspora efforts should be focused in this area-which could produce immediate results.
Money laundering is a hot button issue with all politicians in North America and Europe. And we have the talent to tackle this one.
The Ukrainian World Congress is and has been headed by smart, competent lawyers. In talking to ordinary people in Ukraine, stories of oligarch riches, corruption and bribes are well-known and documented in various credible media investigative reports.
Maybe after a while, apathy sets in and everyone takes it for granted. Ukraine’s central bank cites the figure of $100 billion parked in Swiss banks alone – likely a conservative estimate. In 2010 alone, $30 billion left Ukraine. And what about Cyprus, the UK, US and banks in Belize?
The easiest way to force a regime change in Ukraine is to cut off the funding to the Party of Regions, which comes primarily from only several oligarchs. Freezing their assets or imposing visa sanctions on them or their children would be crippling. This is what Boris Nemtsov is demanding from U.S. members of Congress for corrupt Russian politicians, implicated in the death of Sergei Magnitsky. Accusations of money laundering and sanctions won’t come from Ukraine-actions need to be initiated in the West.This would severely cramp their lifestyles and the opportunity to hobnob with the super rich elites in Davos, Switzerland, Morocco, London or Paris, which they cherish the most.
Walter Derzko is a senior fellow at the Strategic Innovation Lab (S-Lab) at OCAD University in Toronto and teaches at the MA program in Strategic Foresight and Innovation (SFI) at OCAD University in Toronto.
