Simultaneous protests of servicemen of the National Guard (special police unit) on Oct. 13 and at the same time in two different capitals, the capital of independent Ukraine Kyiv and the Soviet-era capital, Kharkiv, and another attempt at a protest in Chernihiv is a rehearsal by the Russian special forces before organizing a military coup in Ukraine.
The rehearsal of an attack on the Verkhovna Rada on Oct. 14 that followed, belongs to the same category. All political forces that took part in that day’s celebrations (of creation of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, the UPA), denied any involvement in the attack.
Chief commander of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko shares this view. He said that the meeting of draftees from the National Guard outside of the presidential administration was a provocation of foreign special services.
“It was a pity to watch adult men who fell for a provocation of the foreign special services and took part in this not-so-numerous action and attempt to discredit the Ukrainian army,” Poroshenko was quoted by lb.ua as saying in Zaporizhya.
He is spot on in this case. The Kremlin suffered a serious military fiasco in its war in the Donbas. Creation of a Novorossiya in the form that Vladimir Putin envisaged, is impossible. And this fact cannot be covered by any amount of brainwashing in Russia by the Kremlin propaganda.
If you think that Ukraine has lost everything and sincerely believe that the West has betrayed us, here is what an authoritative Russian expert says about it.
The best representatives of the special services of the airborne troops and special forces of the army were “ground outside of the Donetsk airport,” according to independent Russian journalist Stepan Demura.
He also says that NATO will soon be in Kharkiv as a result of the poorly planned military operation in the Donbas.
There is also a difficult winter looming, which for the Kremlin can become very problematic in terms of trading up its main commodities that make much of the Russian gross domestic product, oil and gas. Even primary school children (in Ukraine) know that oil prices have been sliding.
Moreover, there is a really complex problem to solve in providing for 2.5 million Crimean residents in the winter, and the occupying military force on the peninsula. As a Crimean native, I will have to disappoint those who believe that the Kerch ferries will suffice for that.
In reality, during the half year of occupation, Russia has not made even a half-hearted attempt to make physical improvements at the crossing, even by buying several large ferries. The Greek ferry Dorius, which arrived in July, only fits 600 people and has been under repairs more than it has been carrying passengers. Moreover, the Black Sea storms that rage around the crossing have always paralyzed the work of ferries in the winter. So, you can forget about the stable work of the crossing.
In these circumstances there are few options left for Putin. One is to start a full-scale attack with the aim of creating a corridor to Crimea through Donetsk, Zaporizhya and Kherson regions. Two is to start humiliating negotiations with Poroshenko to either allow Russian caravans through Ukraine’s territory, or ask Ukraine to renew supplies of its goods to Crimea.
But what about food sanctions, you might ask. It seems that the whole of Russia, choking on its gag reflex, will live on a diet of Ryazan swedes and Voronezh turnips, washing it down with powdered milk, while Crimea will be eating good quality Ukrainian food.
But what else has Kremlin got to do if the Potemkin-style bridge over the Kerch straigh has remained a public relations stint, while the hunger is real?
This is why the Kremlin has taken up the tried-and-tested Soviet technology of organizing a military coup. It has worked in Afghanistan and other republics, and is described well in the Wikipedia article about the removal of President Hafizullah Amin in Afghanistan.
In the hard times of trials the impact of a person with a gun is bigger than ever. If you top that with the network of agents developed under President Viktor Yanukovych, and then offer material interest for the uniformed people, you can achieve your goal.
This is why I am convinced that the Oct. 13 events in Kyiv and Kharkiv that featured representatives of the National Guard were a test of Kyiv’s reaction to a potential military coup in the conditions of war. If there are no criminal cases started in the next few days for leaving the place of permanent deployment, disobeying orders and participation in illegal protests, this would mean that the military prosecutors are not worth their pay.
Soldiers are the people who have given an oath. They cannot, like simple mortals, just come out and strike. They simply don’t have this right, especially in the times of war. How could they have simply locked the officers in the store rooms and go to Kyiv, like they say they did? Are there people who actually believe this farce?
Moreover, unlike the privates who do not carry weapons all the time, officers are always armed. How could one possibly disarm a trained officer?
In any case, suppressing the embryo of a coup is always easier than dealing with its aftermath, which the Kremlin will continue attempting to organize as protest sentiments grow in Ukraine.
According to publicly available information, the protest actions of the National Guard in Kyiv and Kharkiv were coordinated by the same administrator in Kherson through the Russian social network Vkontakte.
This is enough entry data for a clever person. The case should now be taken over by the professionals from the special services. And the patriots, in the meantime, should make sure the government does not forget the crimes against national security that we have seen in the past few days.
Taras Berezovets is a political consultant and owner of Berta consultancy.
