Since the start of the civil unrest that followed Belarus’ disputed Presidential election in August, close to one hundred people have disappeared and at least six have been killed. Now, it seems that Belarus’ once-thriving tech sector could become yet another casualty.
A nation of fewer than ten million with an economic landscape dominated by state-run heavy industry, Belarus was an unlikely hub for the IT industry. But, over the past decade, a vibrant sector made up of consultancies, tech companies, developers and video game studios has emerged. Belarusian-developed apps, such as Viber and MSQRD, have appeared in top downloads charts, while Minsk has become the home-base for the multinational teams behind software like PandaDoc and Maps.me.
In 2019 the sector employed around 55,000 specialists and made up around 6% of the country’s economy. The knock-on effect that it has had is profound, creating demand for office space in Minsk and causing new bars and restaurants to spring up, catering to young professionals with disposable income. Its developers and engineers have long been recruitment targets for tech firms in countries like Poland and Ukraine, where the number of vacancies is still larger than the number available candidates.
However, since veteran strongman Alexander Lukashenko claimed victory in this summer’s Presidential elections – amid widespread irregularities and allegations of fraud – the industry has taken a greater hit than any other. The unprecedented movement that has brought tens of thousands of protesters to the streets since then has been met with a brutal response from authorities that has made firms and their investors question their future in Belarus.
Speaking on the condition of anonymity, one Belarusian IT consultant told of how, like many others, her company had taken the tough decision to relocate its staff and operations from Minsk to Lviv in Western Ukraine. For her, the industry was “the thing we could be really proud of as a nation – the only thing people knew about Belarus, apart from being the last dictatorship in Europe. It was a reason to stay in Belarus, rather than looking to migrate elsewhere.”
“At first, nobody saw this developing in the way it has. Nobody had a backup plan. People were getting ready for internet lockdowns just for the time of the election – that was something we had gotten used to. But nobody anticipated such a strict and violent response from the government.”
As widespread protests broke out in Minsk and other cities, access to the internet was severely restricted or cut off altogether. For the tens of thousands of IT employees, this meant the plug was being pulled on their livelihoods. “The first days were really dramatic – we were in lockdown with no internet, losing our partners’ and customers’ trust, and missing all deadlines. The first concern was for people’s safety, but then it became about ensuring the business didn’t crash.”
In response to the newly imposed restrictions on internet access, many companies sent teams across the border into Ukraine to ensure they had a contingency if it was shut off again. Others are now following suit. Ukraine’s Minister for Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov told Reuters that more than 2,000 IT workers had already moved to the country since the outbreak of unrest in Belarus.
Now, the Ukrainian government is working to make it even easier to bring over Belarusian IT firms and the economic benefits that come with them. Earlier this month, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signed a decree that doubles the length of temporary stays for Belarusian IT workers to 180 days. It will also require their residence permits to be granted within three days, make it easier to apply for work permits and to register as taxpayers.
This kind of approach to welcoming IT businesses into the country is what made Belarus’ industry such a success. Former Belarusian Ambassador to the U.S., Valery Tsepkalo, is often credited with the vision of Belarus as the Silicon Valley of Eastern Europe. After his stint in Washington, Tsepkalo returned to Minsk as the founder and head of the newly inaugurated Hi-Tech Park, a framework that nurtured foreign direct investment and offered members exemptions from all corporate taxes.
However, Tsepkalo himself came up against Lukashenko’s government and, in 2017, was dismissed from his role at the Park. Earlier this year, he declared his intentions to run for President, selling his home to pay for the campaign. In June, only two weeks ahead of the election, he fled to Russia after his candidacy was barred and he was apparently threatened with prosecution. His wife Veronika herself became a prominent figure in the group surrounding opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, before also fleeing in August. Belarus had lost one of its most high-profile tech evangelists before the election had even begun.
Since then, life has changed for many employees working in Belarus’ tech industry. On average, its workers were younger, more financially stable and working in flexible jobs, so were well-represented in the protests and voluntary organizations that have come about, and in the crackdowns that have ensued. PandaDoc, the American software company which has a major presence in Minsk, saw four of its employees arrested, apparently being refused access to lawyers. Three were reportedly released this week, along with other opposition figures, after a meeting with Lukashenko himself.
PandaDoc has wasted no time in assessing its options outside of Belarus. Last week, the company announced that it had relocated 60 employees to Kyiv and Lviv, as well as opening a new office in Odessa. As well as bringing Belarusian staff into Ukraine, they are also actively looking to hire software engineers, sales and marketing managers locally. Other companies, such as messaging app Viber, had been investing in Ukraine for some time, with new offices and campuses opening earlier this year.
The next few months will show whether the Ukrainian government can put in place the right conditions to not only attract but retain Belarusian IT experts. Although countries like Poland and the Netherlands are also vying for expat tech employees, the limited language barrier and the proximity to friends and relatives makes Ukraine a good choice. Ukraine’s own IT industry has been growing at an incredible rate, with demand outstripping the number of available workers. At the start of 2020, the sector employed 200,000 people – a rise of 20% on the year before.
Relations between Ukraine and Russia are, however, a potential cause for concern. Many Belarusian IT professionals are used for visa-free travel across the border and worry that tension between Kyiv and Moscow could put this at risk. Given the circumstances surrounding their departure from Belarus, it is unsurprising if they put a high premium on stability. The foreign relations of their new home country are likely to be no exception.
For Belarusians, the past few months have brought hope, fear and sadness in equal measure. But the IT consultant I spoke to was optimistic as she prepared to relocate to Lviv. “Ukraine isn’t my dream country to move to, but it is a good one. I’ve been there many times and it’s very hospitable… If things do get better in Belarus, it doesn’t mean that we will just stop Ukrainian activities – we’re seeing it as an opportunity to grow operations across the board.”
In Ukraine, where her skills are in such high demand, the government will be hoping she is right.
