Russia in Review is a weekly intelligence summary (INTSUM) produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This ISW INTSUM series sheds light on key trends and developments related to the Russian government’s objectives and its efforts to secure them. Receive future Russia in Review INTSUM products via-email by signing up for the ISW mailing list.
Key Takeaway: Europe missed an opportunity to counter Russia in late 2019 in allowing the Kremlin to pressure Ukraine into an unfavorable gas deal. The Kremlin secured an energy deal with Ukraine, largely on its terms, despite a relatively weak negotiating hand. The deal provides Ukraine short-term financial benefits but strips Ukraine of its leverage against Russia in the long run. Russia likely diluted Ukraine’s leverage by linking energy issues with “peace talks” – a scenario ISW forecasted. The Kremlin avoided reputational and financial losses and freed resources to focus on the future stages of its campaigns in Ukraine and elsewhere. The West continues to cede the leverage it has with Russia because it compartmentalizes its approach – in this case by approaching an energy issue as distinct from the Kremlin’s larger campaign in Ukraine and Europe more broadly.
