And I don’t trust the U.S. because its track record and the administration’s “red lines” in foreign policy have proven to be weak and disastrous.
Europe and the U.S. may be prepared to throw some money at the problem, but will simply retreat behind its illusory Maginot Line of NATO’s Article 5.
The simple reality is that Russia faces a rudderless, leaderless, and largely clueless consortium of independent European states, each of which looks to the other to “do something,” while the U.S. sees itself as increasingly disengaged.
But whether or not Ukraine succeeds in acquiring any of the weapons it needs, it should continue lobbying for them, while accepting the probability that it, alone, will have to face Russia militarily and that it can and will prevail.
Ukraine must reorient itself from large, conscript armies susceptible to mass casualties from enemy firepower (especially airpower) to highly trained, highly specialized, mobile elite units capable of infiltrating enemy-occupied territory, disrupting transit and traffic, blowing up military stockpiles and heavyweaponry, staging ambushes on convoys, and assassinating through sniper fireany one and everyone who appears to somebody other than a lowly “grunt”.
It does not need a planned military force of 250,000 poorly paid, under-equipped and inadequately trained conscripts. It needs 100,000 highly paid, motivated, andtrained “rambos” that are capable of both defensive positions (such as the“cyborgs”of the airport”) as well as dayand nocturnal offensive operations into the very center of enemy-controlled territory.
The rest should remain reservists with intensive and realistic combat training. The U.S. requires its active reservists to train one weekend a month and two weeks on a military base each year.
With the right equipment and training they should be capable of back-filling quickly whenever additional forces are required.
And every Russian should realize that the training of every Ukrainian “Rambo” will include instructions and incorporation into a vast network of homeland defense partisan units that will make life absolutely miserable for the aggressor even if he should make some further headway deeper into Ukrainian territory.
Instead of spending a large part of its defense budget on military fortifications that could be breached, or armaments that could be destroyed, Ukraine would benefit far more by devoting a portionof its budget to the intensive training and equipping of SAS, Navy Seal, and Green Beret-type Ukrainian clones.
In the winter war of 1939, each Finn took 12 Red Army troops with him into the other world. There is no reason why Ukrainians, better armed and trained than the Finns, couldn’t replicate the Finnish performance.
Furthermore, Ukrainians are not alone in their fight with the Russians. Whether or not Angela Merkel approves or NATO is made to feel uncomfortable, the several “front-line” states bordering Ukraine (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Romania) fully recognize that “but for the grace of God” they, too, would be facing Russian aggression; and – if Ukraine falls – they still may.
According to the latest NATO and RAND corporation studies, Europe is pitifully unprepared to to face a Russian assault and the Baltic capitals would fall in three days.
As we had warned several times in op-ed pieces in the Kyiv Post, the new Maginot Line – Article 5 of the NATO Treaty – is likely to experience the same fate as the old Line – at least during the next several years.
By the time NATO mobilizes, much of Eastern Europe would be groaning under Russian occupation and brutality.
It is in the interest of all the front-line countries to form far-ranging joint operations, training, supply, and defense agreements with Ukraine and begin building up their own forces quickly in order to offer a veryreal deterrence to Putin in addition to the somewhat dubious NATO one.
They can immediately offer and assume the burden and cost of rest and rehabilitation centers for Ukrainiantroops from the front, including veterans suffering from PTSD, medical care, supplies, armaments, and whatever else is in their ability to support theUkrainian warrior.
Every Ukrainian soldier that is refreshed, strengthened and capable of taking up or resuming service at the “Gate of Europe” is an additional source of security to the Western partners.
And all the support and experience gained by the frontlinestates in assuming these costs and gaining real-world experience with combat casualties and needs will benefit their own military forces.
Putin is building new divisions, adding to his already massive armory, testing the readiness and rapid reaction of his troops, and conducting large scale exercises and simulated wars with NATO.
Europe, for its part, is preoccupied with the refugee problem and increasingly feeling the pain of overstretched budgets and excessive debt. So who is minding the palace walls? Who is looking out across the fields to see the clouds of dust rising from marching boots in the distance?
