They came up against
Ukrainians…not the “faux” type who applaud Russian entertainers bad-mouthing
Ukraine; or who wear embroidered shirts but are ashamed to use their native
language ….but real Ukrainians.
The kind that picked up Soviet-era
AK-47s, wrapped some black bread and cured fatback in improvised backpacks, and took off for the front. The kind that knew that the “front” was
wherever foreigners and their supporters were desecrating his native land and
abusing his compatriots. And these largely untrained and unequipped volunteer
citizen – soldiers fought Putin’s forces to a standstill.
Several months have passed since those bloody and tragic days of summer. And yet the blue and yellow flag still waves
over Donetsk airport, which has withstood the enemy’s full force and fury since
May…its defenders forever memorialized as “Cyborgs” because of their super-human
endurance. The easy victories, mayhem,
and destruction that the invaders enjoyed during the early months were now paid
with their blood as Ukrainian forces won back much of the territory the enemy
had ravaged . Putin’s forces are now backed up in an irregular triangular patch
against the Russian border, across which flows a constant stream of combatants
and armaments in one direction and coffins and ambulances in the other.
Although the Ukrainian military is now the largest,
combat-ready force in Europe and observers marvel at its performance, the
battlefield is still terribly uneven.
Ukrainians are desperately short of advanced armaments, anti-tank and
anti-armor guided missiles, aerial support, and real time intelligence. Almost 5% of Ukraine’s mainland territory and
much heavy industry is still in enemy hands. Putin still has an overwhelming
preponderance of armor, troops, artillery, and airpower that he can use. And his GRU (Russian military intelligence)-trained and financed terrorists
have fanned out across Ukraine to sow panic by blowing up railroad stations, placing
explosives in cafés, and assassinating civic leaders. If NATO members and (especially) the U.S.
were to provide the ordnance needed to level the battlefield, Russia would lose
its sole remaining advantage that encourages continued aggression..
Despite the military asymmetry, it is likely that any
military success will prove to be a Pyrrhic victory for Putin: (1) he will not
be able to advance much beyond where he currently is without tremendous cost to
his military assets; irreparable damage to his reputation; and further damage
to Russia’s anemic economy; and (2) he will not retain the territories he
controls in mainland Ukraine for long, because Russia can not afford rebuilding
or supporting the economy he destroyed, and both the indigenous Ukrainian
residents and Ukraine’s special forces will make life intolerable for the
occupying force. As regards Crimea – the
peninsula has changed hands multiple times over the centuries, and the Russia
of today will not be the Russia of tomorrow. With an ethnic base that is evenly
split between Russian and non-Russian, the “Republic of Crimea” may yet tire of
its intended role as Russia’s naval outpost and Eurasian Las Vegas. With
Ukraine’s encouragement, it may yet hold another referendum – but a real
one this time.
While the war’s outcome in the immediate area of conflict
may be uncertain, the losses that Russia has sustained, and will sustain,
exclusive of the military, are entirely measurable. A year ago Putin was one of
the most influential and admired men on the planet. Today he is a pariah. Russia’s economy was much improved with good
prospects for growth. Today it is
dangerously close to default and certain contraction. Russia was integrating
with the much larger European economy as a valued partner and decision-maker. Today she is cold-shouldered and isolated in
much of the world. Russia’s commitments
were generally considered somewhat reliable. Today no one trusts her word.
Russia had a major trading partner and market for its oil and gas in Ukraine. Today Ukraine has diversified its energy
sources and is replacing Russian markets with European ones. Russia’s hopes of
rebuilding her super-power status by way of
the CIS and the EES appear to be fading as even Belarus and
Kazakhstan are distancing themselves. Russian citizens and tourists had been
welcome throughout Europe. Today they
are stigmatized. Russia enjoyed the good will and friendship of the
overwhelming majority of Ukrainians. Today
82% of Ukrainian citizens have voluntarily contributed to the war
against Russia, the majority want to join NATO, and only 3% want to join the
“Russkiy Mir”. And the list could go on and on.
Putin still has the ability to effect rivers of blood, but towards what end? He
will never retain Ukraine or regain for Russia what he has lost. He, more than
anybody, has freed Ukraine of its economic and psychological dependence on
Russia. His smartest recourse is to cut
his losses, make whatever amends he can, and seek to “reset” his relationship
with the rest of the world. No one is
fooled by his bluff that his hemorrhaging, Italy-sized economy can support his
“il duce” delusions.
Europe and the U.S., for their part, should not –under any
circumstance- allow Putin to come out ahead or even break even. He started a
world crisis without right, reason, and remorse, and now Ukraine and the
civilized world must end it. Any
compromise will be seen by him as a victory, and the world will have to face
him again in the future. He must not be allowed to snatch victory out of the
jaws of defeat.
