Notwithstanding the financial and diplomatic support provided by its western partners, Ukraine can not trust either the current U.S. Administration. or Europe to support its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The support that has been given is more a response to Russian threats against NATO and trans- Atlantic solidarity than to Putin’s designs on Ukraine. Although the Budapest Memorandum may not be the most artfully expressed guarantee of U.S. and British support, its meaning is clear and no amount of word parsing can erase the signatories’ duplicity. Ukraine has had to accommodate itself to England’s curious disengagement and to Obama’s embargo of lethal arms. In the meantime, Europe enjoys peace and stability behind the earthen trenches in which thousands of Ukrainian soldiers crouch and many thousands have been killed or maimed.
Although Ukraine has borne the brunt of Russian aggression (while the cost to its allies has been very light) it is the U.S. and Europe – not Ukraine – that are inclined to offer concessions….. though at Ukraine’s sole risk and expense. They have urged Ukrainian officials to fulfill the Minsk Agreement without reciprocal concessions on Russia’s part, and have even dispatched a high ranking official to monitor the enactment of changes to Ukraine’s constitution. Fortunately, the average Ukrainian no longer trusts these “bearers of gifts”, as recent polls have shown that only 1 out of 4 Ukrainians would agree to an autonomous status for the Russian-controlled enclave. Despite the privations, the bloodshed, the destruction, and the massive humanitarian burden of nearly 2 million refugees, Ukrainians have shown that they will no longer be anyone’s patsy.
And here are the reason’s why:
1. Ukrainians know that their country is the only barrier between a reckless, resurgent, and aggressive Russia and a Europe that is, as yet, unprepared to face up to that threat. A defeated Ukraine would not only position Russian armies on Europe’s border, but would greatly add to Russia’s power over Europe and NATO. The cost of the support that Europe and the U.S. provide to Ukraine is very cheap for the security it receives. .
2. Ukraine can not rely on commitments that sanctions “will continue in place” until Crimea is returned or the Russians leave Donbas. European and U.S. solidarity on sanctions is already beginning to fray, and – in a year or two at most – may be forgotten. Although the western powers can cripple Russia economically in very short order (if they choose to do so), that likelihood is slim to none.
3. The only guarantor Ukrainians have of their national security is their own force of arms. In time Ukraine’s military strength will be indispensable to Europe’s security.
4. Ukraine can not give up or even loosen its claim to Crimea or the Donbas. To do so means that these areas may be irrevocably lost. As long as they are contested, changes that may occur in Russia or the hope of reunification with a prosperous, neighboring Ukraine may bring them back under Ukrainian control.
5. Ukraine must not turn its back on any of its citizens, even if some may have made the mistake of joining the opposition. All surveys taken right up to the time of Russian invasion indicate that at least 7 out of 10 residents of the occupied areas wanted to remain in Ukraine. Similar sentiments are still being voiced. Forsaking them will be a blot on Ukraine’s conscience, a bitter source of contention, and an invitation to further encroachments.
6. Patience and “staying the course” have always required sacrifice and perseverance, but, historically, have been successful strategies against stronger and richer opponents.
7. Russia can not be stopped through concessions. It knows that it is not entitled to any concessions, and will regard them as rewards for its predatory behavior. Delivering any control of any parts of Donbas will simply provide a base for further expansion and mischief.
