The Minsk II Agreement was – in its time and day – a worthwhile experiment in conflict resolution, and neither the Ukrainian government nor its western supporters should be faulted for seeking a “diplomatic” solution to a very undiplomatic outrage perpetrated by Putin and his acolytes. It was a roadmap leading to an outcome consistent with the professed wishes of both the Ukrainian and Russian sides: An immediate ceasefire; a pull-back of heavy weapons and troops, dialogue and enactment of laws on local elections and decentralization; pardon and amnesty for the scoundrels; release of hostages; humanitarian aid for the needy; restoration of basic social services and payments; full Ukrainian control of its border and implementation of decentralization by year-end; and, finally, the departure or disarmament of all foreign and illegal groups. Putin, himself, agreed to these terms, and his acolytes signed them. What could be clearer, simpler, or more felicitous?
But there’s a problem: implementation of the first point – scrupulously observed by the Ukrainian side – is already 5 months overdue on the Russian side. And the rest follows accordingly. Had Putin intended to honor the agreement, he could have ensured its implementation with a single phone call. Instead, he was preoccupied with getting to the phones, even before the bottom of his seat had cooled, to order a full frontal assault on Donetsk Airport. So there you have it…..millions of lives shattered and countless hours wasted in Washington and European capitals in expectation of an agreement that never took root. Peace was given its chance….a peace based, at first, on honest dialogue and agreement; and, later, on Ukrainian sacrifice and patience with mounting casualties in the face of this “diplomatic solution”.
It’s time for Ukraine’s partners to stop urging further concessions from Ukraine in anticipation that Putin may eventually come to his senses. Whether or not they acknowledge it, they are the collateral beneficiaries of Ukraine’s one-on-one battle with the Russian Goliath. But Ukraine needs more than slingshots to hold back the Philistines. Every civilized country with backbone recognizes who are its friends and who are its enemies, and ought not be shy about coming to the aid of a friend defending itself against unprovoked attack by a bully. Whether or not that friend can invoke the NATO agreement or the Budapest Memorandum does not change the simple appeal to decency and self-interest that civilized states should have in standing up against naked aggression.
The Minsk II Agreement is a good roadmap, and it can still bring the desired result of peace and stability to Europe and Ukraine. It can become the diplomatic solution to the crisis. The problem is not with the agreement but with its enforcement. Rather than peace through concessions or dialogue, it can work (as all agreements with Russia work) only through strength. Both Europe and the U.S. must stick their heads out of their respective shells and take a more assertive and convincing stance – not with Poroshenko, but with Putin.
Ukraine has proven to the whole world that it can and will fight and that its government and people are serious and united about internal reform and development of a civil society. It is no longer the indeterminate, spongy morass of the post-Soviet era, and Russian apologists can no longer claim that Ukraine is split in its foreign policy vector. Now is the time for Europe and the U.S. to step up and clearly state that Ukraine has asked for help against an aggressor state; that the western powers support Ukraine in its right to determine its own destiny; and that it will start providing whatever arms, training, intelligence and related support Ukraine needs to even the battlefield and to defend its troops and civilians. In addition, Europe and the U.S. must start tightening its sanctions across all sectors of the Russian economy, and assure Ukraine of the credit and economic support it needs to stabilize its economy until peace is restored.
Maybe then all of us will look forward to hearing the fat lady sing.
