For American and British diplomats it is a headache – an egregious breach of trust and agreement – to be swept under the carpet. For Ukraine it constitutes the anguish and remorse of a nation betrayed – one that believed in U.S. and British assurances. And for the rest of the world it simply means that America’s long-standing quest for a nuclear-free world has crashed on the shoals of the Obama Administration. But there is still time for both the Obama and Cameron administrations to restore the honor of their countries and the respect they deserve in the world.
The memorandum requires that its four signatories “respect the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity” of Ukraine, and that they would “consult with one another if questions arise regarding these commitments.”
In exchange Ukraine gave up its 1,240 nuclear warheads and renounced nuclear arms for the future.
One of the signatories, Russia, violated its pledge.
That was the only signatory that Ukraine had to fear, and no amount of Russian assurances would have induced Ukraine to give up its arms if the US and UK had not offered their assurances as well.
Ukraine looked to the US and Britain to keep Russia in check.
“Consultation” did not mean simply an afternoon chat over tea and crumpets, but hard negotiations intended to rectify “questions that arise regarding these commitments”….such as a military invasion and takeover of parts of Ukraine.
As recently as six years ago Obama personally “reconfirmed that the security assurances …..remain in effect.”
He left no wiggle room to pass the buck to one of his predecessors even if had not intended to do so. So where has the US and UK been these last two years since the breach of the memorandum by Russia?
Where has Barack Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron been now that the bill has come due?
Why are they quietly sitting in the back row while German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande are doing all the “consultations” on their behalf?
There is nothing in the agreement that allows proxies and stand-ins.
The Minsk agreements offered some early promise of a peaceful and fair resolution, at least as regards Russia’s invasion of the Donbas.
It looked as if Merkel and Hollande, in consultation with Russia and Ukraine, would succeed. But it is now clear that Minsk is dead – dead as a doornail – and the two proxies have exhausted whatever leverage and “consulting” skills they were assumed to have had with Putin.
The time has come for a “reset” of the negotiating quartet. It is time for the major leagues – the United States and the United Kingdom – to take over.
But not to pressure Ukraine into accepting damaging terms; Ukraine is not the violator, Russia is.
It is time for the two, and Poroshenko, to sit down with Russian President Vladimir Putin and engage in some very firm “consultation”…the kind that will unequivocally “answer any questions regarding these commitments.”
Poroshenko is scheduled to visit Washington at the end of this month for a Nuclear Summit.
We can be thankful that the summit is not being held in Budapest, because it would be akin to inviting East European states to celebrate their independence at a summit in Yalta.
For Ukraine, such a summit is an embarrassment and a humiliation because it opens the still very painful scar of Ukraine’s biggest strategic blunder- the Budapest Memorandum and the relinquishment of its nuclear arms.
It is within Obama’s ability to use that occasion to announce to the world that both the US and Britain will reaffirm their commitment to a nuclear-free world by taking whatever measures, short of war, to “consult” with Russia about the removal of its troops and proxies from Ukrainian soil.
