All this against a backdrop – 20 years
earlier – of an ill-fated Budapest
Memorandum in which the U.S., Russia, and the United Kingdom (followed by
China and France) provided assurances of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial
integrity in exchange for Ukraine’s relinquishment of its nuclear arsenal and
acceptance of the United Nations’ Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Although the U.S. and the United Kingdom have
acknowledged that Russia breached its obligations, their “assurances” have
proven to be worthless – they have even refused to provide Ukraine with weapons
to defend itself! Any first year law student would tell you that the Budapest
Memorandum is now null and void, and the global system of nuclear disarmament,
treaties, and guarantees has been tested and failed.
As regards Ukraine’s responsibilities under
the United Nations’ Non-Proliferation Treaty, Article X allows a state to leave the treaty – upon 90 days notice – if
“extraordinary events, related to the subject matter of this treaty, have jeopardized the supreme interests of the country.”
Furthermore, NATO has taken the position that
no notice is required if there is a state of “general war.” It would be hard to dispute that the presence
of thousands of foreign military personnel and weapons and the shelling of
villages and downing of aircraft from across the border is not a “general war”
in all but name.
Although the downing of MH17 has, for the
moment, riveted world attention on the daily tragedies unfolding in eastern
Ukraine, there is no indication (as yet) that anything has changed.
World attention will swing back to other
events and the utterly disgraceful and shameful stance of both the European
Union and the United States will continue.
Putting aside the mutually suicidal nuclear factor as more hypothetical
than plausible, the current stand-off between Europe and the U.S., on the one
hand, and a rogue Russia, on the other, is reminiscent of a Walt Disney
cartoon: the little mouse (Russia), with
an economy the size of Italy’s (a mere 5 percent that of Europe and the United States) baring its
teeth and pressing up threateningly against the terrified cat that is 20 times
larger.
Given the relative lopsidedness
of economic strength (“soft” power), can any of the world’s leaders explain why
NOT deliver a crippling blow – with strong sectoral sanctions – to the Russian
economy? Had we done this already, we would not be picking up bodies from
Ukrainian fields.
Now that it is increasingly evident that
there is a nuclear-armed, rogue country, with a crazed leadership rattling its
saber around the borders of Europe; and now that it is obvious that Ukraine can
no longer rely on US and EU assurances, it is time for Ukraine to reconsider
its relationship to Europe and the West.
Ukraine has proven, during these four months of war and invasion, its
prudence, self-restraint, and dedication to the maintenance of democratic and
civil order and civil liberty. If it is
to ensure its own security and, incidentally, discourage further Russian
encroachments and claims on the border states of Europe, it must, once again,
position itself as a nuclear power.
Ukraine has retained significant nuclear
expertise, fuel cycle capabilities, and a large nuclear power program. Ukrainian territory contains 15 nuclear power
plants, uranium deposits, milling operations and heavy water production
capability. Although it currently lacks
a capability for uranium enrichment, it is one of the few nations that
possesses the technical means to do so, and to rejoin the nuclear weapons
club.
Throughout the cold war, the US doctrine of
MAD (mutual assured destruction) is largely credited with maintenance of a
(more or less) peaceful and stable environment between the Free World and the
USSR. Ukraine does not need to match
Russia – or any other power – in nuclear arms.
It has no claims or designs on its neighbors, nor does it aspire to
“superpower” status. But it DOES need a
respectful arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons capable of inflicting so much
damage on any prospective aggressor as to avert any threat and keep the peace.
Instead of a MAD doctrine – it needs a MAD-lite doctrine…a doctrine of mutual
assured deterrence.
As Putin, himself has stated: “If you
cannot count on international law, then you must find other ways to ensure your
security. … This is logical: If you have the bomb, no one will touch
you.”
George Woloshyn is a former naval intelligence commander and former director of U.S. National Security Preparedness and a former director of the U.S. Office of Personnel Security Investigations.
