Ukrainian intelligence has provided almost daily briefings on new troop and armor concentrations, as well as large shipments of ammo and ordnance moving into the Donbas area.
Foreign military experts report on how the approaching warmth and hard ground of early summer provide optimum conditions for military offensives. Analysts speculate that Russia’s departure from Syria leaves it open to concentrate its time and attention on destabilizing Ukraine.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe monitors are increasingly denied access to certain areas. Drones, helicopters and even an occasional reconnaissance aircraft have been spotted overflying front-line areas with greater frequency and brazenness.
Pre-selected questions have appeared on Russian websites expressing concern about defending the rights of the Russian minority in Ukraine. Even Ukraine’s border with Russia’s colony in Transnistria has now become a newly discovered provocation for the Kremlin. And everyone realizes that America’s enemies always regard the last few months of a sitting president’s administration as a period of greatest vulnerability for America’s friends.
All these individual pieces of a larger puzzle are troubling. They could simply mean nothing more than a bit of saber rattling from which Russia hopes to gain maximum leverage in anticipation of serious settlement negotiations. Or they could well mean a long, hot, and bloody summer for Ukrainian troops and civilians. In either case, Ukrainians should pray for the former, but prepare for the latter…..as in the words of a prominent American song of World War II vintage: “Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition….”
If the spring offensive comes, Ukraine must be prepared to (a) halt the Russian assault while inflicting maximum casualties on their personnel and damage on their armor; (b) elevate to the world’s attention the irrefutable reality that Russia’s elusive, “hybrid” takeover by proxy is, in fact, nothing less than an unprovoked and deliberate invasion of a neighboring state; and (c) concentrate the maximum amount of media attention to ensure that the full brutality of the war – on both civilians and military – is seared into the minds of people throughout the world, particularly Europe and North America.
Whatever gains Russia hopes to make on land must be outweighed by a price that would cripple it economically and hobble it as a global pariah for a generation. And if Ukrainian troops should prevail by (at a minimum) halting the Russian offensive from gaining new ground, the world should also be provided with footages of Ukrainian troops planting flags atop burnt-out Russian tanks. All this requires planning and preparation because timing is everything.
It would be both reckless and disastrous for Ukraine to merely observe Russia’s build-up without a countervailing build- up of its own forces. Ukraine should first make clear to all parties that it is mobilizing its forces and making preparations solely in response to a Russian build-up and increased attacks along the agreed lines of truce….it will stand down only if Russia takes immediate steps to remove its growing threat to Ukrainian troops and civilians.
If Russia fails to do so, Ukraine should follow-up with a series of actions designed to show the seriousness of its intent: mobilization of part of its forces, and placement at a high readiness level of its reserves; transport of stockpiles of ammo and supplies closer to the front lines; alerting hospitals and medical personnel to be ready for increased casualties and possible assignment of medics to the battle zone; conducting civil defense drills for residents closer to potentially impacted areas, and identification and stocking of bomb shelters; and activation of a special media center in consultation with both foreign and domestic reporters, photographers, and cameramen on how best to bring Ukraine’s story to the world and report on developments if and when hostilities should begin.
After Crimea, Ukraine can not afford another passive reaction to Russian aggression. It must be proactive in either forcing Russia to back down or in preparing for the worst. Although the loss of lives and the resulting destruction would be tragic, a Russian -initiated offensive or even preparation for such an offensive may prove to be a turning point if it persuades Putin that the risks are too high and nothing can be gained by bluff, bluster, or use of force.
Above all, Ukraine must start from the premise of what it needs to safeguard its security and maintain its self-respect.
It must stop worrying about what Europe, the U.S. or some third party may demand from Ukraine. If, in fact, it is true that the U.S. had urged Ukraine not to resist the Russian takeover of Crimea, (though Ukraine had adequate forces on the ground with which to do so), then this should be an abject lesson of what happens when one country places its core interests in the hands of another. Ukraine must not be half-hearted or take half measures when it comes to defending or preparing to defend its soldiers and civilians.
