The press reports suggesting “Vladimir Putin backed down” need to be ignored. While Putin announced on April 22 that he is pulling back upwards of 100,000 Russian troops from Ukraine’s eastern board and sending them back on their home bases, his moves in the last month achieved a lot.
What has he achieved?
- First, the blockade of the Azov Sea remains in place.
- Second, he intimidated the United States, forcing them to remove two ships from the Black Sea and to give him a summit with President Joe Biden.
- Third, Russians always lie so do not believe Russian Defense Minister Sergiy Shoigu that they are going back to bases. Much equipment will stay.
- Fourth he made forward moves in the Arctic whilst all eyes were elsewhere.
- Fifth he rehearsed the rail system for a major mobilization. There will be many lessons there.
- Sixth he deployed and practiced battalion groups deploying to the war front including their artillery and logistics ready for war.
- Seventh, he rehearsed readiness for war.
- Eighth, he rehearsed the coming together of all heavy-lift aircraft and the parachute forces including loading their armor fully prepped for parachute dropping.
- Ninth, he consolidated and practiced a new marine landing fleet from ships normally based in three different navy groups.
- Tenth, he observed the Ukrainian deployment and training.
- Eleventh, he could assess the strength of resolve of the political class in Ukraine.
- Twelfth, much of this deployment remains in place ready to be reactivated quickly and will be improved by lessons learned.
What have we learned in Ukraine from all this and what will we both in Ukraine and the West change quickly?
