US President George W Bush stated “Russia has invaded a sovereign neighbouring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st Century. The Russian government must reverse the course it appears to be on and accept this peace agreement as a first step toward solving this conflict”
UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband, said “The international community will want to ensure that the message goes out that force is not the right way to take forward these difficult issues,”.
Vice President Dick Cheney was more blunt, telling Georgia’s president that “Russian aggression must not go unanswered, and that its continuation would have serious consequences for its relations with the United States.”
While the clarity of the condemnation is clear, the actual ramifications are remain unstated. Which raises the key question of what actually “the West” can do to force Russia’s hand.
A military solution?
With the USA fighting wars in both in Iraq and Afghanistan, Bush clearly has its hands full. Europe, split between Italian appeasement and German hesitancy, clearly has no stomach for even mentioning a show of force to defend “afar away country of which they know little.”
Sanctions are also doomed to fail. First, in terms of trade, basically the only thing that the West imports from Europe is natural gas and oil and some other metals. As the gas wars of the past few years have shown, Europe remains too dependent on Russia for its energy supplies to consider erecting higher trade barriers on Russian oil and gas. In fact, it is this dependence which has emboldened Putin in the first place.
US Presidential nominee John McCain has thrown around the idea of expelling Russia from the G8 talks. This is a good idea and probably will occur. There would be a minor loss of face for Putin, who clearly enjoyed hosting the world leaders in St Pete in 2006. On the other hand, nobody really knows what the G8 is supposed to do other than show world leaders posing for jovial photos in front of some monument. As such, this would hardly shake the foundations of the Russian army.
I think there is only one line of attack open to the West to try and force Russian hands. It was first mentioned in the joint statement made by the Presidents of the Baltic States and Poland earlier this week.
As is well-known to all citizens of the Soviet Union, the right to travel to Europe has become one of the most visible symbols of freedom gained since the collapse of Communism. 7 million Russians travelled abroad in 2006, a number which has probably double by this year.
Simplifying the visa policy of Russians to travel to Europe has been one of the key sticking points in Russia-EU relations for the past few years. In fact, Russia was aiming to sign a “visa facilitation” program with the EU to ease travel requirements for Russians to enter the Shengen Zone.
One of the underlying factors in escalating the conflict in South Ossetia was the Russian government handing out passports to Georgian citizens. While it allowed the Russians to claim that their citizens were under attack, it clearly raises questions of the value and meaning of a Russian passport.
To clarify the situation, Europe could simply make it a policy to take 30 days to review all new visa requests from Russian citizens. (or at least make it as difficult as it is for Europeans to get a Russian visa – which includes an invitation signed at OVIR and an AIDS test.)
As opposed to sanctions or a military attack which normally punish the worst-off, such a policy would only harm the elites of Moscow and St. Pete, who love to travel and spend money in Europe. If Russia decided to go tit-for-tat, it wouldn’t really make a difference since so few Europeans travel to Russia anyway. True, some hoteliers and restaurateurs in the Cote D Azur or St. Moritz would suffer a drop-off in business, but this is war.
On the other hand, a couple months of forcing Moscovites to vacation only in Egypt or crimea might shake the fragile peace that Putin has so carefully built and make him and all Russians see the true cost of invading Georgia.
In short, it would be a perfect example of making the punishment fit the crime.
