A Historic Day for Central Asia
On Saturday (3 July) the Kyrgyz interim President Roza Otunbayeva became the first female president in the former Soviet Central Asia. Her inauguration ceremony as caretaker president, attended by some 1,000 guests, took place at the Philharmonic Hall in the capital Bishkek in the presence of relatively light security. Otunbayeva was elected through a 27 June constitutional referendum that saw the participation of over 70% of registered Kyrgyz voters. An overwhelming 90% of the electorate endorsed Otunbayeva as the country’s president as well as approving a new constitution and disbanding Kyrgyzstan’s Constitutional Court. It must be noted that all three issues were presented in one all-encompassing question. This makes it unclear if the voters would have given the same overwhelming support to Otunbayeva’s candidacy if the questions were asked separately.
Otunbayeva has been elected with two conditions: she will stay in the presidential office until 31 December 2011 when the next presidential election will take place, and will not take part in the next presidential race. In the coming week she has to form a new cabinet which will replace the current 13–member provisional government. The latter took power following the flight of the former president Kurmanbek Bakiyev in the wake of the 6-16 April uprising. The new government will have a short lifespan. This is because on 10 October an extra-term parliamentary election is to take place. Owing to the recent referendum Kyrgyzstan is now a parliamentary republic which means that the new legislature will form a new government. Hence most of the prominent politicians that currently make up the provisional government are likely to abstain from partaking in Otunbayeva’s cabinet to prepare for the upcoming parliamentary election.
Is Otunbayeva Ready for Kyrgyzstan?
The first female president is facing an unenviable task of leading a country which has been plagued by revolution, ethnic conflict and economic meltdown, all at the same time. In her inaugural speech 59-year-old former professor of philosophy and foreign minister Otunbayeva, stated that she will spare no effort to create a new political culture based on strict adherence to the rule of law. She added, "I must be principled and consistently make demands to all branches of government to ensure it".
Otunbayeva is no stranger to political power. She has been in the government as well as in the opposition since Kyrgyzstan’s independence in 1991. Moreover, she uniquely stands out amongst many Kyrgyz as well as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) politicians by being throughout her career the head of caretaker government twice; once in the wake of the March 2005 Tulip Revolution and the second time in the April 2010 anti-Bakiyev revolution. As a skilled and respected politician Otunbayeva is a staunch supporter of parliamentary democracy. Following the April uprising she declared an ambitious plan of creating the Third Kyrgyz Republic where the parliament and not the president will have preeminence. Otunbayeva scored her first victory in the 27 June referendum as an overwhelming 90% of the Kyrgyz electorate voted for the new constitution, turning the country into the first parliamentary republic in an otherwise authoritarian former Soviet Central Asia.
However Otunbayeva has failed as an interim leader to protect ethnic Uzbek citizens which resulted in more than 2,000 deaths in Osh and Jalal-Abad regions in Southern Kyrgyzstan during the 10–15 June ethnic violence. In her inauguration speech she carefully avoided describing as ethnically motivated the attacks on Uzbeks by Kyrgyz militiamen, reportedly aided by members of state police and the army, tasked with protecting Uzbeks. Instead Otunbayeva opted to use a more neutral expression—"tragic events"—which she blamed on "dark forces", promising to do everything to overcome the consequences. By downplaying the seriousness of ethnic divisions in the South, Otunbayeva failed to give a clear promise of independent investigation into the causes of the ethnic cleansing. Her only promise was to ensure that the returning refugees will receive government help to rebuild their homes destroyed during the violent attacks. She promised that no one will be left homeless by the onset of cold weather.
Otunbayeva’s political image has been tarnished by her inability to stop the attempted ethnic cleansing that resulted in displacement of some 400,000 people, most of whom have now returned. Her desperate and unanswered calls for Russian military intervention further questioned her abilities to control the country. However most worryingly for ethnic Uzbeks and the West is her emerging reluctance to launch a full investigation into the events and recognise the deep-seated ethnic problems in southern Kyrgyzstan.
Is Kyrgyzstan Ready for Otunbayeva?
Roza Otunbayeva is a divisive political leader. With her academic and political credentials she would have had less difficulty in winning the electorate in any European country. However Kyrgyzstan remains largely a Central Asian country where the rural areas particularly in the south have very conservative views about the role of women in politics. Thus the impressive 90% yes vote for Otunbayeva at the 27 June referendum may seem a contradiction to the widespread conservatism. But when looked at closely, this outcome is not a straightforward backing of the first female presidency. The voters were asked to answer three questions with one answer. Against the backdrop of violent ethnic conflict, disintegrating state structures and economy the electorate voted for stability and any government that will fill in the political vacuum. It is most likely that if asked to vote on Otunbayeva’s candidacy only the outcome would have been different. Furthermore the politically conservative south, owing to security concerns, did not have such wide participation compared with other regions. Born in southern Osh city, Otunbayeva is not considered a representative of southern political clans either. She has lived in the north far too long and she is far too Russified to represent the conservative south.
Even some members of Otunbayeva’s cabinet, led by acting Defence Minister Ismail Isakov, have voiced their concern over Otunbayeva’s drive to leave major political decisions to the newly formed parliament. Echoing the Russian government’s reaction to the results of the referendum, many Kyrgyz politicians with closer ties to security and defence ministries have called for strong-man rule to prevent an outbreak of new violence in the country and its possible disintegration.
Outlook and Implications
Whether Kyrgyzstan will become a flag-bearer of progress in Central Asia or a scene of a dangerous political experiment at the expense of human lives depends on the interim government and particularly the newly inaugurated President. When it comes to political goals Otunbayeva has been very clear on her plans to build a new political system in Kyrgyzstan which will prevent future usurpation of power by authoritarian leaders. She hopes to create a better economy with fairer distribution of wealth by establishing the rule of law. If she is successful then indeed a new Third Kyrgyz republic will be created where the change of government will be through peaceful means rather than regular revolutions. This will lay a basis for economic structural reforms to prevent concentration of wealth in the hands of the ruling political oligarchy. If this model works then it is most likely to be replicated in neighbouring Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and possibly in South Caucasus, namely Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Otunbayeva needs the commitment of the voters and the parliament to ensure the success of her plans. With the election of the new parliament she is likely to have a lesser role in the decision-making process. Instead Otunbayeva may try to retain overall control of the nation-building processes and reforms. The new president realises that she can win over the electorate by delivering economic betterment and tangible political reforms which will curtail corruption and establish rule of law.
Her greatest challenge will remain the possible outbreak of violence in the south. By conveniently blaming the violence in Osh and Jalal-Abad on the old Bakiyev regime and downplaying the existing animosities, Otunbayeva is hoping to close the lead on the attempted ethnic cleansing. Furthermore, by dragging her foot in launching a full investigation into army and police involvement in the killings she is essentially trading Western support and the domestic Uzbek vote for loyalty from many southern Kyrgyz who felt that the clashes were merely an attempt by declining and economically worse-off Kyrgyz to show Uzbeks who are the true owners of the country. Otunbayeva may not agree with this stance but she is currently incapable of confronting the southern Kyrgyz political clans. She hopes that with the introduction of a parliamentary republic ethnic Uzbeks will be better represented in the government, thus avoiding future ethnic conflicts. Given the tense history between the two communities Otunbayeva’s ethnic policy is simplistic and is most likely to fail to prevent new violence, which may ultimately jeopardise the future of her parliamentary republic. The April uprising is becoming Roza Otunbayeva’s revolution. For all her weaknesses Otunbayeva offers a choice. Unlike many of her male colleagues, especially the ones with military background, she does not demonstrate the tendencies of becoming yet another Central Asia authoritarian leader. However she has to deliver by building a sustainable parliamentarian republic. And most critically she has to prevent new outbreaks of violence by demonstrating a more realistic and honest approach to Uzbek-Kyrgyz ethnic issues.
IHS Global Insight Russia and CIS political analyst Lilit Gevorgyan can be reached on +44 20 3159 3394 or at [email protected].
