United States Intelligence recently came up with a very special kernel – alleged information that is so blatantly incredible that it shames even that not so principled sector of our government – Vladimir Putin is being misinformed by his close advisers as to the war situation in Ukraine and the consequences of American and European imposed sanctions.
This came on the heels of President Biden speaking from the heart in Warsaw, insisting that Russian thug Putin had to be taken out. Regime change was never on the agenda and had never been expressed before since such rhetoric might precipitate the use of nuclear weapons by Putin, asserted the apologist. The message was transmitted to President Biden and he quite clumsily walked back his assertion.
Nonetheless, very few people in the world believe that Putin is being misinformed by his own top people. Putin does not have advisers. He has sycophants. They come and go at his will.
The need for this piece of disinformation by Intelligence was too obvious – to cover up President Biden’s sentiments even though they were spot on. Misleading intelligence is used often by governments to explain away impolitic statements and incongruous policies. Consider some such duds: during the Cold War American Intelligence insisted that the Russians were a captive nation as well in this way attempting to bring together a stronger and larger alliance of people opposed to the Communist regime; to enable the invasion of Iraq in 2001 in order to take out Saddam Hussein, a long time thorn in America’s side, American Intelligence insisted that Hussein was in possession of chemical weapons; more recently in order to appease Putin without appearing to do his bidding American Intelligence insisted that Ukraine militarily was not ready for NATO. In each instance retrospectively the United States has looked foolish and probably much more than that.
Aside from appearances of poor intelligence, serious ramifications ensued in each case.. As the Soviet Union disintegrated the United States accepted without reservation that there would be a democratic non-aggressive Russia. Both Presidents Bush and Clinton played up that unlikely scenario. There was no reason to expect Russia to become democratic and tolerant of its neighbors who once made up the Russian empire. Boris Yeltsin may have added to the obvious fiction with his tomfoolery and drunkenness, but when sober he knew exactly what he was doing to ensure a future Russian empire. He named a thug as his successor. He had to know or at the very least to have vetted KGB Colonel Vladimir Putin.
The KGB chose a certain type of individual for its hierarchy. American Intelligence could have paid attention to Yeltsin himself and note that only a few days after Ukraine proclaimed its independence the democratic Yeltsin levelled claims to Ukrainian territory. While no one bemoans the removal of Saddam Hussein, the Middle East has been a mess since his demise. No one would argue for a return to the stability of Saddam Hussein. Still, a more carefully calculated and surgical approach may have resulted in less casualties and spending.
Finally, there is no doubt that had Ukraine been admitted to NATO membership with a MAP at Bucharest in 2008, there would be no Russian invasion of Ukraine today. Regarding that ‘military readiness’ canard, American Ambassador Volcker, who drafted the guidelines for NATO membership, has argued many times over the years since 2008 that Ukraine is more than ready for NATO. One striking indisputable fact of the current war is that Ukraine is more than ready and that if Ukraine were in NATO it would be NATO’s second most serious military member, Turkey notwithstanding. Ukraine would be a reliable democratic member. Turkey is neither democratic nor reliable.
The lesson learned is not a new one. Appeasement does not work on thugs and criminals. It only emboldens them. Exculpating Putin! What a concept! Another lesson is that American intelligence should stick to the facts and perhaps, if its not too far-fetched at all times retain a moral compass. America does so much good. But it seems intent on neutralizing that good with its own bad behavior. As Americans we cannot be proud of that. Today, we are trying to exculpate Vladimir Putin or enable him to save face. Give me a break! There are children dying because of Putin and we are looking to give him a break. That is so contrary to what we believe.
April 1, 2022
